Is Pakistan’s opposition leader at risk of losing his parliament seat?

A Pakistani court has lifted a stay order on the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) investigation into alleged rigging in NA-18 Haripur, won by National Assembly’s opposition leader Omar Ayub Khan in the February 8, 2024 general elections.

Experts are now weighing whether Ayub could lose his seat if his opponent’s claims are upheld.

Acting Chief Justice of the Islamabad High Court (IHC), Sardar Sarfraz Dogar, issued a written order dismissing the petition and directed the ECP to hear both parties before proceeding with the inquiry and to decide the matter in accordance with the law.

The acting CJ noted that the petitions were not maintainable before the IHC and that the court would not rule on the merits of the petitioners’ arguments.

He added that it is the ECP’s responsibility to decide the case, and if the petitioners are dissatisfied with its final decision, they may appeal to the Supreme Court of Pakistan as provided under the law.

The case background

Omar Ayub — a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), whose founder and former prime minister Imran Khan is currently incarcerated — won the NA-18 Haripur seat in the 2024 general elections with a strong lead of over 80,000 votes, securing 192,948 votes against PML-N’s Babar Nawaz Khan, who received 112,388.

However, just an hour or two after polling began, Ayub submitted a complaint to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), raising concerns about possible rigging in his constituency.

Despite raising concerns early on, Ayub eventually emerged victorious with a wide lead. However, his opponent Babar Nawaz also approached the ECP, alleging rigging and urging an investigation into the matter.

In July 2024, the ECP began proceedings based on Babar's complaint. Ayub challenged this move in the IHC, where then Chief Justice Aamer Farooq granted a stay.

In his order the same month, the former CJ noted that such rigging-related applications must be resolved within 60 days of the official notification -- a timeline not met in this case. Therefore, he ruled that ECP proceedings should remain suspended.

'Tribunal was the right forum'

Barrister Hassan Qadir, counsel for Omar Ayub, argued that the court erred in allowing an election challenge in the wrong forum -- asserting that only election tribunals are authorized to decide such matters once results are officially notified.

He told Nukta, “The Islamabad High Court failed to appreciate that once a candidate’s election is declared and notified under Sections 98(1) & (2), and after the establishment of election tribunals via notification dated 16-02-2024, no challenge can be made except through an election petition before the relevant tribunal. The proceedings pending before the ECP are, therefore, void ab initio, coram non judice, and a result of mala fide intent, lacking jurisdiction and lawful authority.”

Trouble mounting for Omar Ayub?

A legal expert familiar with the case, speaking to Nukta on condition of anonymity, noted that both candidates had raised concerns over the election's integrity. “Omar Ayub expressed doubts on polling day, but accepted the outcome once it favored him. You can't blow hot and cold at the same time,” the expert said, adding that under Article 218(3) of the Constitution, the ECP has the authority to call for a re-election if irregularities are found.