Pakistan's cotton import bill projected to triple in FY25 due to reduced production

Cotton arrivals in Pakistan have decreased by 64% to 1,434,000 bales as of September 15, compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginner's Association. This significant decline is attributed to reduced cultivation area, driven by poor agronomic conditions and low wheat prices.

The drop in local cotton production will likely increase the need for imports. During fiscal year 2023-24, Pakistan imported 204,890 tons (1,281,000 bales), costing $448 million.

It is estimated that in FY25, the demand will reach 11 million bales, while local production is expected to be 7 million bales, necessitating the import of 4 million bales. Based on the average import price for the first two months of FY25, the cotton import bill for the fiscal year is projected to rise to $1,307 million — triple the amount of $448 million spent last year.

In Punjab, cotton arrivals have declined by 65% year-on-year to 539,000 bales, while in Sindh, arrivals dropped by 63% YoY to 895,000 bales.

District-wise breakdown

In Punjab

• Pakpattan, Qasur, and Mianwali reported no arrivals to date, compared to 5,240, 3,700, and 19,118 bales, respectively, during the same period last year.
• Rahim Yar Khan saw a 91% YoY drop to 9,021 bales.
• Bahawalnagar and Bhakkar reported declines of 87% and 85% YoY, respectively.
• Bahawalpur and Multan arrivals fell by 77% and 73% YoY, respectively.
• Muzaffargarh, Lodhran, and Dera Ghazi Khan experienced declines of 67%, 63%, and 62% YoY, respectively.
• Layyah, Khanewal, and Faisalabad recorded drops of 59%, 51%, and 51% YoY, respectively.
• Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, Sahiwal, and Vehari reported declines ranging from 40% to 44% YoY.
• Rajanpur saw the smallest decline in Punjab, down 36% YoY to 11,757 bales.

In Sindh and Balochistan

• Khairpur and Ghotki saw YoY declines of 92% and 90%, respectively.
• Naushero Feroze’s arrivals dropped by 88% YoY.
• Nawabshah and Mirpur Khas experienced declines of 74% and 70% YoY, respectively.
• Jamshoro, Hyderabad, and Thatta saw declines of 58%, 54%, and 50% YoY, respectively.
• Badin reported a 22% YoY decline, while Baluchistan arrivals decreased by 63% YoY.