Pakistan stocks see above-average Ramadan growth, second time in a decade

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) showed above-average growth for the second time in a decade during Ramadan, driven by multiple factors, including the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) approval of $2.3 billion in financing.

In 2025, the KSE-100 index recorded a 5.2% return during Ramadan. Since 2015, the average return during the holy month has been 1.3%. Ramadan 2024 saw the strongest performance, with the KSE-100 delivering an impressive 6.9% return. The current year, 2025, ranks as the second-best Ramadan performance since 2015.

During March 2025, the KSE-100 index remained buoyant, reaching an all-time intraday high of 119,000 points. The surge was attributed to optimism surrounding Pakistan’s $1 billion IMF staff-level agreement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), pending Executive Board approval. Additionally, a $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement was also secured.

Investor sentiment further improved with expectations of reduced circular debt and a revised fiscal year 2025 tax target. The IMF approved a tax target adjustment to PKR 12.3 trillion from the original PKR 12.97 trillion announced in the federal budget, according to a research note by Arif Habib Ltd.

However, gains were capped by some profit-taking, proposals for cement royalties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and IMF concerns over tariff adjustments. Slower economic growth also dampened the mood. Government data showed gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.73% in the second quarter of FY25, with the first-half growth standing at 1.54%, compared to 2.33% during the same period in FY24.

The stock market closed the month at 117,807 points, reflecting a robust month-over-month gain of 4,555 points or 4.0%.

Sector and Stock Activity

Key sectors driving activity during the month included Cement, Banks, Technology, Food, and Refinery, with average volumes of 47 million, 43 million, 35 million, 33 million, and 33 million shares, respectively. On a stock-specific basis, leading volumes were recorded by PIBTL (22 million shares), BOP (22 million), CNERGY (21 million), FCCL (17 million), and WTL (16 million).

Key Developments

• Petroleum sales increased 2% year-over-year but declined 18% month-over-month, reaching 1.14 million tons in February 2025.
• Cement sales rose 7% year-over-year in February, while urea and DAP sales plummeted 36% and 65%, respectively.
• Car sales saw a 25% year-over-year increase in February.
• Power generation dropped 15% in February, while textile exports remained flat year-over-year and fell 16% month-over-month.
• Mari Energies began production from the Shewa discovery in the Waziristan block and announced a second discovery at Spinwam-1.
• Punjab’s chief minister launched a free tractor scheme.
• Amreli Steels extended its suspension of operations at the SITE rolling mill.
• Engro completed the divestment of Eximp Agriproducts for Rs2.4 billion.
• Haleon Pakistan shipped its first Centrum consignment to Kenya.
• The State Bank of Pakistan approved the merger of SILK and UBL.