Afghanistan-India transit trade through Pakistan plummets amid shifting regional routes

Afghanistan's trade with India has declined 59% in FY24, as both imports and exports through the Pakistani route witnessed sharp contractions, official data reveals.

Imports by Afghanistan via Pakistan fell to $398.36 million from $799.18 million a year earlier, a 50%. Exports tumbled even further — down 83% to just $50.96 million, compared to $295.8 million in FY23, according to numbers compiled by customs.

The total volume of Afghanistan-India trade dropped from $1.09 billion to $449.32 million, raising serious concerns over the sustainability of trade through traditional corridors amid growing regional shifts in connectivity.

Product-wise collapse

Afghanistan’s imports of sugar under transit trade through Pakistan declined 51%, pharmaceuticals down 58%, and textiles dropped 70–82%.

Women's garments import shrank by 86%, while imports of seeds, iron and steel, and synthetic fabrics all posted decline of over 80%. Meanwhile, gains were seen in oilcake up 106% and food preparations up 36%.

The collapse in India-bound trade comes as Afghanistan increasingly shifts its focus to neighboring countries for commerce. Their imports from Iran surged from $1.53 billion to $2.37 billion over the past year, and Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan also gained in trade share.

Pakistan continues to be a key player in Afghan trade, with exports to Afghanistan rising to $1.06 billion in 2023-24 despite a drop in imports.

Data shows that Pakistan’s exports to Central Asian Republics (CARs) jumped to $278.1 million in 2023-24, up from $166.9 million in the previous year, as new trade routes through Afghanistan gain traction.

Imports from CARs, however, dropped by nearly 43% during the same period.

The data signals a shift in regional trade preferences away from India-centric corridors, possibly influenced by political, logistical, and tariff-related factors, with broader implications for regional connectivity and economic diplomacy in South and Central Asia.