How India’s regional defeat is turning into global isolation

Once aspiring to be South Asia’s uncontested leader, India now finds itself increasingly isolated -- both diplomatically and strategically. A string of military setbacks, most notably its recent defeat in a conflict with Pakistan, has triggered a domino effect, eroding New Delhi’s influence among allies, neighbors and international platforms alike.

In the latest episode of On My Radar, Kamran Khan highlighted that the anxiety within India’s military establishment is palpable. Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan recently voiced concerns over what he termed a “three-front threat” -- the growing alignment between Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh. In a public address, he labeled this trio's friendly ties a serious national security risk for India, warning of emerging strategic encirclement.

Just days earlier, India’s Deputy Army Chief General Rahul Singh echoed similar fears. While addressing a forum, he dramatically declared that India faces not one but three enemies -- Pakistan, China, and Turkey -- along a single border. He accused China of converting the conflict into a “live lab,” claiming it was relaying real-time intelligence to Pakistan regarding Indian troop movements.

Such remarks -- unusually candid for senior Indian military figures -- have exposed a deeper frustration within India's top brass. They reflect not just battlefield losses, including the downing of six Rafale fighter jets, but a broader unraveling of India’s regional standing. These statements, layered with blame and alarm, signal the psychological pressure stemming from India's growing diplomatic irrelevance.

A cold shoulder from the world

India’s fading influence is not limited to the battlefield. Over the past two months, traditional global powers -- including the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the Gulf states -- have largely distanced themselves from New Delhi’s narrative. Regionally, the Modi government is witnessing an unprecedented breakdown in relationships with nearly every neighboring state.

From Dhaka to Male, anti-India sentiment is increasingly visible. Bangladesh, once considered a staunch ally under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, is now tilting away. With her departure from power, pro-China public opinion has gained ground in Dhaka’s streets. A joint China-Bangladesh airport project near the narrow Siliguri Corridor -- often dubbed India’s “Chicken Neck” -- is now viewed as a strategic threat.

This 22-kilometer-wide strip, which links India to its northeast, borders Bangladesh and Nepal, and lies dangerously close to Bhutan and China. Under Hasina, this zone was seen as secure. Today, its future looks far more uncertain.

In Sri Lanka, a pro-Chinese Marxist government has taken office, significantly weakening India's leverage. With China now controlling the strategic Hambantota Port, Beijing has secured crucial access in the Indian Ocean -- further shrinking New Delhi’s influence in its own neighborhood.

Hegemony unraveling at home and abroad

India's increasingly unilateral posture has even pushed historically friendly nations like Nepal away. Anti-India sentiment has surged into a full-blown #BackOffIndia campaign, with Nepalis demanding an independent foreign policy. The Modi government’s hardline rhetoric is alienating neighbors faster than it can build bridges.

In the Maldives, the #IndiaOut movement has gained enough traction to lead the government to expel Indian military personnel from the island nation. The Maldives is now actively cultivating closer ties with China and Turkey, deepening New Delhi’s diplomatic woes.

Meanwhile, India's internal security threats have been amplified by external pressures. Separatist movements in its northeastern states -- including Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Tripura -- have reportedly received support from Myanmar-based insurgents. India alleges that this aid is facilitated by China, further raising alarm in New Delhi.

The Hindutva-driven foreign policy approach has effectively surrounded India with adversaries. On major global platforms -- from the G20 and G7 to BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Quad -- India’s narrative has failed to gain meaningful endorsement. Allegations of Pakistani involvement in the Pahalgam incident in the Indian-administered Kashmir have been dismissed at every forum, exposing the limits of New Delhi’s diplomatic playbook.

The rise of Pakistan’s diplomatic momentum

As India struggles to make its case, Pakistan is gaining ground on the world stage. In a symbolic yet powerful blow to New Delhi, Pakistan was elected as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in June 2024.

While Pakistan has held the position before, this time 182 out of 193 UN member states voted in its favor -- a resounding global endorsement and a collective rebuke of the Modi administration’s international standing.

India’s attempts to isolate Pakistan have not only failed but backfired. Its threats to unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty have also been largely dismissed. Despite sending seven delegations to 33 countries to promote its stance, India has failed to present solid evidence regarding the Kashmir attack -- even three months later.

Washington warms to Islamabad

In contrast, U.S.-Pakistan ties appear to be entering a new and pragmatic phase. President Donald Trump has repeatedly praised Pakistan’s leadership and has publicly credited Islamabad for agreeing to a ceasefire. He has even expressed willingness to mediate on the Kashmir issue -- something India has long opposed.

The Indian media was left stunned when Trump invited Field Marshal General Asim Munir to the White House for lunch and a two-hour meeting in the Cabinet Room. Prior to that, the army chief had been hosted at CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida. Soon after, Pakistan Air Force Chief Zaheer Ahmad Babar Sidhu also conducted an official visit to Washington.

These high-level military engagements have clearly unsettled Indian analysts and defense circles, who view them as signs of a deepening U.S.-Pakistan strategic relationship -- one that stands in stark contrast to India’s current diplomatic isolation.

A humbled power at a crossroads

What began as a military miscalculation has now snowballed into a full-fledged diplomatic crisis for India. With its regional allies distancing themselves, global forums ignoring its claims, and even former friendly powers growing indifferent, India is witnessing a rare moment of reckoning.

While the Modi government has largely remained silent, India’s military leadership continues to publicly admit its setbacks. Meanwhile, the Indian media -- once an echo chamber of nationalism -- is now openly questioning the competence of its political and military leadership.

India’s ambition of regional supremacy now stands diminished -- outpaced by rising adversaries, abandoned by fading allies and drowned out on the global stage by the silence of indifference.