Uncertainty looms as first phase of Gaza truce expires

The first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce drew to a close on Saturday, but negotiations on the next stage, which should secure a permanent ceasefire, have so far been inconclusive.

The ceasefire took effect on January 19 after more than 15 months of war which saw 48,388 Palestinians killed in Israel's retaliatory attack.

Over the initial six-week phase, Gaza fighters freed 25 living hostages and returned the bodies of eight others to Israel, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

A second phase of the fragile truce was supposed to secure the release of dozens of hostages still in Gaza and pave the way for a more permanent end to the war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sent a delegation to Cairo, and mediator Egypt said "intensive talks" on the second phase had begun with the presence of delegations from Israel as well as fellow mediators Qatar and the United States.

But by early Saturday, there was no sign of consensus, and Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said the group rejected "the extension of the first phase in the formulation proposed by the occupation (Israel)".

He called on mediators "to oblige the occupation to abide by the agreement in its various stages".

Max Rodenbeck, of the International Crisis Group think tank, said the second phase cannot be expected to start immediately.

"But I think the ceasefire probably won't collapse also," he said.

Netanyahu's coalition worries

Israeli campaign group the Hostages and Missing Families Forum planned a new rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday evening to keep the focus on the remaining captives.

Hamas's armed wing released footage showing what appeared to be a group of Israeli hostages in Gaza, accompanied with the message: "Only a ceasefire agreement brings them back alive". AFP was unable to immediately verify the video.

The preferred Israeli scenario is to free more hostages under an extension of the first phase, rather than a second phase, Defense Minister Israel Katz said.

A Palestinian source close to the talks told AFP that Israel had proposed to extend the first phase in successive one-week intervals with a view to conducting hostage-prisoner swaps each week, adding that Hamas had rejected the plan.

Domestic political considerations are a factor in Netanyahu's reluctance to begin the planned second stage.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of the remaining far-right faction in his governing coalition, has threatened to quit if the war is not resumed after the end of the first stage.

"The Israeli government could fall if we enter phase two," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence for risk management consultancy firm Le Beck.

Of the 251 hostages seized during Hamas's attack, 58 are still held in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.

Ceasefire 'must hold'

Hamas, for its part, has pushed hard for phase two to begin as planned.

"We affirm our keenness to complete the remaining stages of the ceasefire agreement," the group said in a letter to Arab heads of state due to meet in Cairo on Tuesday.

"We categorically reject... the presence of any foreign forces on the territory of the Gaza Strip," it added.

Israel has said it needs to retain troops in a strip of Gaza along the Egyptian border to stop arms smuggling by Hamas.

UN chief Antonio Guterres said on Friday that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire "must hold".

"The coming days are critical. The parties must spare no effort to avoid a breakdown of this deal," Guterres said in New York.

The truce has enabled greater aid flows into the Gaza Strip, where more than 69 percent of buildings were damaged or destroyed, almost the entire population was displaced, and widespread hunger occurred because of the war, according to the United Nations.

On October 7, 2023 Hamas attacked Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1218 people.

The United States on Friday announced the approval of the sale of more than $3 billion in ammunitions, bulldozers and related equipment to ally Israel.

It comes amid a major military operation launched by Israel in the occupied West Bank on February 21, two days after the Gaza ceasefire began.

According to the United Nations, at least 55 Palestinians and three Israeli soldiers have died in the operation, which has displaced more than 40,000 Palestinians.