Israel claims Iran was close to nuclear weapons; US intel sees years to go

As Israel pounded Iranian nuclear sites last week, officials justified the strikes by claiming Tehran was nearing the threshold of acquiring a nuclear weapon. But U.S. intelligence assessments offered a far more cautious view, suggesting Iran was still years away from achieving such a capability, CNN reported.

According to multiple American officials familiar with the assessments, Iran had not resumed active efforts to build a nuclear bomb and remained at least two to three years from developing a deliverable weapon.

While one senior U.S. official noted that Iran was “as close as you can get before building,” the intelligence consensus indicated there was still time to deter or delay Tehran without immediate military action.

Despite heavy damage to Iran’s Natanz facility -- home to centrifuges used to enrich uranium -- Israel’s strikes appear to have set back Iran’s program by only a few months, U.S. officials believe. Crucially, Iran’s underground Fordow site remains intact. Analysts say Israel lacks the military capability to destroy it without direct U.S. support.

“Israel can disable sites, but to dismantle them fully requires U.S. bombs and delivery systems,” said Brett McGurk, a former U.S. Middle East envoy.

Trump walks tightrope

The dilemma has complicated President Donald Trump’s efforts to stay out of a wider Middle East war. While Trump has emphasized a hands-off approach -- telling reporters, “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved” -- his administration is now under pressure to reinforce U.S. military posture in the region. The USS Nimitz carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East, and missile-defense ships are repositioning in the eastern Mediterranean.

The divergence in Israeli and U.S. assessments of Iran’s intentions is longstanding. While Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that Iran had not reactivated a nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003, Trump contradicted that publicly, claiming Tehran was “very close” to building a bomb.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted in a Fox News interview that Israeli intelligence showed Iran was secretly working to weaponize uranium -- contrary to Gabbard’s testimony. “They were marching very quickly,” he said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has added to the urgency, reporting last week that Iran had accumulated enough near-weapons-grade uranium for up to nine bombs -- though developing a usable warhead and delivery system would take much longer.

Some U.S. military leaders, including Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, have expressed more alarm than civilian agencies. CENTCOM reportedly endorsed the Israeli view that Iran could sprint toward a bomb if it chose to and has asked for more assets in the region to support Israel defensively.

Could the strikes backfire?

Still, the attacks may carry unintended consequences. Intelligence officials now fear that the strikes -- rather than deterring Iran -- might push it to pursue the very path Israel aimed to block: weaponization.

Yet Iran may not have the capacity to do so quickly. “Iran is reeling,” one U.S. official said. “Not sure they have the capacity or expertise to do that anymore.”

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Iran has refused backchannel talks via Qatar and Oman while under attack, and Israel shows no sign of pausing its campaign. The Fordow facility -- buried under a mountain -- remains a symbol of what has not been destroyed.

“If this ends with Fordow untouched,” McGurk warned, “you could actually have a worse problem.”