MENA needs urgent jobs agenda as millions enter workforce: World Bank

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is at a critical crossroads as nearly 300 million youth are expected to enter the labor market over the next 25 years, according to a new World Bank blog.

Despite steady GDP growth of 3.3% annually since 2000, the region has failed to generate enough jobs or improve overall productivity, leaving many economies stagnating.

The report underscores the urgent need for a new jobs agenda, as the region’s economic progress has not kept pace with global standards.

In 2000, MENA’s GDP per capita was just 26% of the world’s leading economy. Two decades later, that figure remains unchanged, signaling a lack of convergence that typically occurs in developing economies with lower capital-to-worker ratios.

The need for a jobs agenda

To ensure sustainable growth, the World Bank estimates that MENA must achieve an annual GDP growth of 4.9% until 2050, far exceeding its historical rate. However, with demographic growth slowing, only 1.1 percentage points of this target will come from population growth alone. The remaining 3.8 percentage points will need to come from increased economic participation and productivity.

If the region continues with a "business as usual" approach, job creation will remain insufficient, and productivity must rise at four times its historical rate — an ambitious challenge. Instead, the World Bank recommends a two-pronged strategy focused on both increasing economic participation and boosting productivity.

One of the most effective ways to achieve this is through greater female workforce participation. MENA has the lowest female labor force participation rate in the world, at just 16% compared to 74% for men. If the region gradually closes this gap by 2050, employment-to-population ratios could contribute 2 percentage points toward the growth target, reducing the burden on productivity improvements.

Country-specific challenges and solutions

The World Bank emphasizes that MENA countries must tailor their jobs agenda based on their unique economic conditions.

Developing MENA countries (e.g., Egypt) need both more jobs and better jobs. Closing the gender workforce gap could increase employment-to-population ratios by 1.7% annually, easing pressure on productivity growth, which would only need to reach 2.1% per year to meet the 2050 target.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which rely on a large migrant workforce, must focus more on job quality and productivity. The GCC needs 3.2% annual productivity growth to reach its target, while closing gender gaps could contribute an additional 0.6% per year. For instance, Saudi Arabia must increase job productivity by 2.8% annually while improving employment ratios by 1% annually.

With MENA’s economic future at stake, the World Bank urges governments to implement policies that support both job creation and higher wages. Without proactive measures, millions of young job seekers could face long-term unemployment, exacerbating economic and social instability.