Pakistan's GDP growth for FY24 estimated at 2.52%

Pakistan's National Accounts Committee (NAC) released GDP estimates for fiscal year 2023-24's (FY24) fourth quarter, showing growth of 3.07% compared to same period last year, taking full year growth to 2.52%, higher than provisional estimates of 2.38% released by government on May 21.

The revised GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of FY24 are 2.69%, 1.97%, and 2.36%, respectively, reflecting slight adjustments from the previous estimates.

The agriculture sector showed improved growth in the first two quarters but the third one saw a marginal decline.

Industrial activities experienced downward revisions across all three quarters, primarily due to lower benchmarks in electricity, gas, water supply, and construction industries.

The services sector, however, showed stability and upward revisions in the second and third quarter due to improvements in wholesale & retail trade, transportation & storage, and information & communication industries.

The economy posted a stable growth of 3.07% during FY24's fourth quarter, with agriculture, industry, and services growing at 6.76%, -3.59%, and 3.69%, respectively.

Notably, crops achieved a double-digit growth of 14.03%, driven by a significant increase in wheat production. Despite positive growth in large-scale manufacturing, other industrial components such as mining & quarrying, electricity, gas, and water supply, and construction registered negative growth rates.

For FY23, the committee approved an updated revised growth rate of -0.22%, with slight declines in agriculture and stable growth in industry and services.

The provisional GDP growth for FY24 was updated to 2.52%, with agriculture, industry, and services growing at 6.36%, -1.15%, and 2.15%, respectively. The healthy growth in agriculture was mainly due to a significant increase in important crops, particularly wheat.

The committee also introduced quarterly estimates of net taxes, GDP, net primary income, and gross national income (GNI) into the National Statistical System of Pakistan, paving the way for the quarterization of the expenditure side of the economy.