UK population to hit 72.5 million by 2032 due to immigration

The United Kingdom's population is projected to grow from 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 72.5 million by mid-2032, largely fueled by net migration, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Net migration, projected to increase by people over the next decade, has become a focal point in discussions of public services and economic needs.

This comes as the UK grapples with record immigration levels, which may intensify political debates over migration policies.

The projections also forecast a balanced number of births and deaths during the 10 years, with births slightly rising but matched by an increase in deaths as the post-World War II baby boomers age.

Economic implications

The projected population growth is expected to boost the UK economy, particularly by expanding the working-age population.

The Resolution Foundation think tank estimates a fiscal uplift of £5 billion annually by the decade's end, driven by higher tax revenues and a larger labor force.

"A bigger economy and more workers mean higher tax receipts, offering a fiscal boost," said Adam Corlett, principal economist at the foundation.

Immigration as a political flashpoint

Successive governments, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour administration, have pledged to curb immigration. This has been a contentious issue since the 2016 Brexit referendum, which was partly driven by concerns about migration.

Despite post-Brexit visa changes reducing EU migration, immigration from countries like India, Nigeria, and Pakistan has surged. This increase is largely attributed to the demand for health and social care workers.

Net migration reached a record high of over 900,000 in the year to June 2023, but the ONS assumes a long-term net migration level of 340,000 annually from mid-2028 onwards.

UK's infrastructure

As the UK population expands, questions about the capacity of public services, housing, and infrastructure are expected to dominate political discourse.

The rise of the right-wing Reform UK party highlights the continuing debate over immigration and its impact on the nation.

ONS data previously showed the UK's population grew by 1% to 68.3 million in mid-2023, with immigration as the primary driver. This trend reflects broader shifts in labor demand and demographic changes.

While the economic outlook may brighten with a growing workforce, the balancing act between meeting labor market needs and addressing public sentiment on immigration remains a challenge for policymakers.