JPMorgan says oil prices could fall to $30 a barrel in 2027

Global brokerage firm JPMorgan has forecast that global oil prices could fall to around $30 per barrel by 2027 if the supply glut persisted.

On November 24, Brent crude futures edged up to $62.07 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $58.18.

The crude market has suffered a volatile year. The benchmark Brent contract has fallen almost 20% so far in 2025, averaging $69 a barrel.

The prices are under pressure due to a supply glut. OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has been boosting output since April, Reuters has reported.

Other producers, such as the U.S. and Brazil, are also increasing supply, adding to glut fears and weighing on prices.

In its outlook for Calendar 2026 and 2027, JPMorgan has said that even as oil demand is set to expand by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbd) to 105.50 mbd in 2025, and by 1.2 mbd in 2027, global supply could still outpace consumption.

Without any intervention, JPMorgan said the surplus is projected to climb to 2.8 mbd in 2026, before easing slightly to 2.7 mbd in 2027.

This could bring the average Brent crude price to around $58 a barrel in 2026 and $50s in 2027. JP Morgan said if the supply glut continued, Brent could average about $42 a barrel in 2027 and — in the worst-case scenario — $30 a barrel.

Last week, a new report by Bank of America said oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in 2026.

“The high end of the range was $82 per barrel first on the back of U.S. sanctions on Russia in January and then as the U.S. struck Iran in June. The low end of the range was $60 per barrel in May right before US and China agreed to de-escalate trade measures,” said analysts at Bank of America, in a note dated November 23.

Geopolitics will also be a key factor in determining the supply levels next year, as Venezuela and Iran are major oil producers and any adverse U.S. actions against these nations could disrupt the market. The Russian supply could fall short of expectations, it added.