OPEC+ agrees to another large oil output hike

OPEC+ has reached a preliminary deal to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day from September, three sources said on Sunday as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia, an international news agency reported.

A decision is expected at a virtual meeting set to begin at 1100 GMT, amid increasing U.S. pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases - part of Washington's efforts to bring Moscow to the negotiating table for a peace deal with Ukraine.

President Donald Trump has threatened secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a ceasefire in its ongoing war in Ukraine.

OPEC+ includes 10 non-OPEC oil producing countries, most notably Russia and Kazakhstan. If agreed, the latest move would mark a full reversal of its largest tranche of output cuts.

The group, which pumps about half of the world's oil, had been curtailing production for several years to support oil prices. It reversed course this year in a bid to regain market share, spurred in part by calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for OPEC to ramp up production.

Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower energy costs and pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, has recently increased diplomatic efforts targeting OPEC+ co-leader Russia.

Eight OPEC+ members began raising output in April with a modest hike of 138,000 bpd, followed by larger-than-planned hikes of 411,000 bpd in May, June and July, and 548,000 bpd in August.

Oil prices still elevated

Oil prices have nonetheless remained elevated with Brent crude LCOc1 closing near $70 a barrel on Friday, up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April. OPEC+ has cited strong market fundamentals as its reasoning for the faster production hikes. A major disruption to Russian oil flows could risk reversing recent price declines, complicating Trump's push for cheaper crude.

If the group agrees to the 548,000-bpd increase in September, it will have fully unwound its previous production cut of 2.2 million bpd, while allowing the United Arab Emirates to raise output by 300,000 bpd.

OPEC+ still has in place a separate, voluntary cut of about 1.65 million bpd from the eight members and a 2-million-bpd cut across all members, which expire at the end of 2026.

The group has no plans to discuss other tranches of cuts on Sunday, sources have said previously.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak met with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in Riyadh last week to discuss bilateral cooperation. The two nations have co-led the OPEC+ alliance since its formation nearly a decade ago.