Pakistan’s mobile phone output drops 23% in Oct as inventories pile up

Local manufacturing and assembly of mobile phones in Pakistan fell 23% in October from the previous month as manufacturers slowed production amid rising inventories across the supply chain, according to data released Tuesday by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority.

Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) data shows local manufacturers produced 2.33 million units in October, down 34% from 3.53 million units a year earlier, reflecting what industry analysts describe as the sharpest monthly decline this year.

“Distributors and retailers have been carrying unusually high inventory, and that forced assemblers to scale back production,” said Sania Irfan, analyst at Topline Securities. “Manufacturers are avoiding further stock accumulation until demand normalizes, which is why we’re seeing such a steep drop.”

Despite the October slowdown, cumulative production for the first 10 months of the year reached 25.11 million units, only 4% lower year-over-year, signaling a relatively stable long-term trend.

Smartphones made up 53%, or or 13.2 million units, of total production in 2025's 10 months. Meanwhile, 47% or 11.9 million units of total production consisted of 2G feature phones.

The data also shows Pakistan’s reliance on local manufacturing has increased significantly. The country met 94% of its mobile phone demand through domestic production during the first 10 months of 2025, well above the five-year average of 77% and the nine-year average of 52%.

Among the top locally assembled brands during the period were Infinix (3.12 million units), VGO Tel (2.82 million), Vivo (2.27 million), Itel (2.06 million), Tecno (1.62 million), Samsung (1.48 million), Xiaomi (1.31 million), QMobile (0.93 million), Realme (0.91 million) and G’Five (0.84 million).

Looking ahead, Irfan said she expects the mobile phone market to regain momentum.

“We anticipate mobile phone sales to grow by 7 to 8% over the next 12 months, supported by a stable PKR, easing inflation and gradually improving purchasing power,” she said.

Irfan added that listed companies such as Airlink Communication (AIRLINK) and Lucky Cement (LUCK) are positioned to benefit from rising demand because their partner brands, including Tecno, Xiaomi and Samsung, are among Pakistan’s top sellers.