Pakistan’s central bank likely to cut interest rate by 1-1.5%, predict experts

Pakistan’s central bank is likely to cut the benchmark interest rate by 100-150 basis points (bps) or 1-1.5% in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on July 29.

According to a survey of 19 experts, including analysts, CEOs, and fund managers, conducted by Nukta, 53% expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to announce a 100bps cut.

Around 21% expect a 150bps cut, while 16% predict it will remain unchanged.

In its previous meeting in June, the SBP had announced a 1.5% cut, bringing the interest rate to 20.5%.

It was the first cut in four years following a reduction in inflation from a record 38% reached in May last year.

Separately, an analysis by BMA Capital stated that historical data of SBP’s meetings since 1996 does not support the expectation of a rate cut.

Except for the SBP’s meeting in April 1999, a large cut — such as the one in June — was not followed by another reduction at the next meeting.