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Pakistan’s central bank likely to cut interest rate by 1-1.5%, predict experts

Survey of 19 experts reveals 53% expect a 1% cut.

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Haris Zamir

Business Editor

Experience of almost 33 years where started the journey of financial journalism from Business Recorder in 1992. From 2006 onwards attached with Television Media worked at Sun Tv, Dawn Tv, Geo Tv and Dunya Tv. During the period also worked as a stringer for Bloomberg for seven years and Dow Jones for five years. Also wrote articles for several highly acclaimed periodicals like the Newsline, Pakistan Gulf Economist and Money Matters (The News publications)

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Pakistan’s central bank likely to cut interest rate by 1-1.5%, predict experts

A view of the State Bank of Pakistan's office in Karachi, Pakistan

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Pakistan’s central bank is likely to cut the benchmark interest rate by 100-150 basis points (bps) or 1-1.5% in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on July 29.

According to a survey of 19 experts, including analysts, CEOs, and fund managers, conducted by Nukta, 53% expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to announce a 100bps cut.

Around 21% expect a 150bps cut, while 16% predict it will remain unchanged.

In its previous meeting in June, the SBP had announced a 1.5% cut, bringing the interest rate to 20.5%.

It was the first cut in four years following a reduction in inflation from a record 38% reached in May last year.


Separately, an analysis by BMA Capital stated that historical data of SBP’s meetings since 1996 does not support the expectation of a rate cut.

Except for the SBP’s meeting in April 1999, a large cut — such as the one in June — was not followed by another reduction at the next meeting.

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