Maulana’s power play: Can PTI survive opposition’s checkmate in KP?

With Pakistan’s Senate elections just days away, Maulana Fazlur Rehman has emerged as the key figure leading efforts to deny the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) a majority of seats from the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province.

Backed by a reinvigorated opposition alliance, the chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) is moving to block PTI from sweeping the province’s Senate seats. A win in KP would help PTI expand its influence in the upper house of parliament and potentially obstruct future legislation.

JUI-F is a party with deep roots in conservative politics and Islamic seminaries across Pakistan. It plays a central role in opposition alliances and wields considerable influence in political negotiations, especially in KP and Balochistan.

The political landscape shifted after Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled on June 27 to reallocate 25 reserved seats in the KP assembly. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) implemented the ruling on July 2, awarding 21 women’s and four minority seats—originally held by PTI—to the opposition coalition.

The opposition now holds 53 seats, compared to PTI’s 93 elected members. Control over the 35 independent lawmakers remains critical for either side.

A political analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “The Senate elections in KP could strengthen PTI’s hand in the upper house, creating hurdles for the federal government’s future legislation, such as the 27th Amendment. That’s why an alliance of JUI-F, PML-N, PPP, and ANP has formed to block PTI.”

Fazl’s strategic moves

Speaking at a July 12 news conference in Peshawar, Fazlur Rehman called the KP government a “fake majority” built through electoral manipulation. He criticized PTI’s governance, particularly the 2018 merger of former tribal areas (FATA) into KP and worsening security in the province.

Behind the scenes, Fazlur Rehman has led negotiations with PML-N and PPP to form a united front ahead of the July 21 Senate vote. His July 11 meeting with KP Governor Faisal Karim Kundi highlighted the opposition’s push to capitalize on the moment. Sources say a no-confidence motion against PTI is under serious discussion.

Legal battles cloud the vote

The Peshawar High Court on July 9 struck down the ECP’s notifications on reserved seats and ordered a fresh allocation within 10 days. The court’s ruling, following a PML-N petition, has delayed the oath-taking of newly allocated members and thrown the assembly into uncertainty.

Inside PTI ranks, tensions are growing. Several independents, previously aligned with PTI, are reconsidering their loyalties after the court’s decision raised questions about their future roles.

Tribal factor in play

Fazlur Rehman’s call for a tribal jirga to address grievances over the FATA merger has resonated in the region. Former tribal districts, often sidelined in governance reforms, have welcomed his focus on their rights. This has bolstered Fazlur Rehman’s image as a leader sensitive to KP’s political realities.

Uncertain path ahead

As election day nears, attention is on the independents who hold the balance of power. Whether PTI maintains control or the opposition, led by Fazlur Rehman, forms a new ruling coalition remains the key question in KP’s volatile political climate.

Mohammad Aslam Ghauri, spokesperson for JUI-F, told Nukta that his party does not plan to topple the KP government.

“We believe PTI is collapsing under its own weight. We are not forming any forward bloc, nor bringing a no-confidence motion,” he said.

On the alliance talks with PML-N and PPP, Ghauri said the discussions focus solely on the Senate elections.

“If an understanding is reached, we are confident we can collectively secure seven to eight Senate seats from KP,” he said.

He also criticized PTI’s leadership. “Ali Amin Gandapur was injected into the party. The PTI leadership must reflect on how someone barred from entering Islamabad months ago is now holding press conferences in Punjab,” he said.

PTI’s defensive strategy

Nukta’s correspondent Kamran Ali reports from KP that the PTI-led government is exploring ways to protect its position. One tactic could be delaying the oath-taking of newly notified members, though this risks intervention by election authorities or courts.

Insiders say PTI is likely to proceed with swearing in its members before polling to prevent cross-voting. The party is assigning lawmakers to vote for specific Senate candidates using a ranked preference system, allowing leadership to track loyalty.

The July 21 vote is shaping up as a high-stakes contest over KP’s political future—and PTI’s survival in the province.