Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit Moon

A massive asteroid that once caused alarm over a potential Earth impact now has an increasing chance of striking the Moon, according to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope.

The asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, initially set a record in February for the highest measured probability—3.1%—of colliding with Earth.

However, follow-up observations ruled out an impact on Earth’s surface. Instead, the likelihood of the asteroid crashing into the Moon has risen to 3.8%, NASA announced.

Measuring between 53 and 67 meters in diameter—roughly the height of a 15-story building—2024 YR4 is large enough to cause significant damage if it hits Earth.

While planetary defense efforts are not required in this case, some scientists are eager to observe a Moon impact, which could provide valuable data on asteroid collisions and planetary defense strategies.

If 2024 YR4 does strike the Moon, the impact may be visible from Earth through telescopes—and possibly even binoculars. Scientists expect more insights when the Webb telescope observes the asteroid again next month.