Study: Gaza war death toll likely 41% higher than reported

An official Palestinian tally of direct deaths in the Gaza war likely undercounted casualties by 41% through mid-2024 as Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure deteriorated, according to a study published Thursday.

The peer-reviewed analysis, published in The Lancet journal, was conducted by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions.

Using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, the researchers assessed the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza during the first nine months of the war, from October 2023 to the end of June 2024.

Study results

They estimated 64,260 deaths from traumatic injuries during this period, about 41% higher than the official count by the Palestinian Health Ministry.

The study reported that 59.1% of those killed were women, children, and people over 65. It did not provide an estimate of Palestinian combatants among the dead.

More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Gaza war, according to Palestinian health officials.

The war began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas gunmen crossed the border into Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli officials.

The Lancet study noted that the Palestinian Health Ministry’s electronic death records, previously considered reliable, deteriorated under Israel’s military campaign, which included raids on hospitals and disruptions to digital communications.

Study method used in other conflicts

Anecdotal reports suggested many victims remained buried under rubble and were not included in official tallies.

To address such gaps, the Lancet study employed a method previously used to evaluate deaths in conflict zones such as Kosovo and Sudan.

Researchers used data from at least two independent sources and examined overlapping entries in lists of the deceased. Less overlap suggests more unrecorded deaths, allowing researchers to estimate the total number.

For the Gaza study, researchers compared the official Palestinian Health Ministry death count; data from an online survey distributed by the ministry to Palestinians in and outside Gaza; and obituaries posted on social media.

Survey respondents provided information such as Palestinian ID numbers, names, age at death, sex, location of death, and reporting sources.

“Our research reveals a stark reality: the true scale of traumatic injury deaths in Gaza is higher than reported,” lead author Zeina Jamaluddine told Reuters.