What happens after India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty?

India has temporarily suspended the Indus Waters Treaty — a key water sharing agreement between India and Pakistan. It’s a big deal, and naturally, everyone’s wondering: What does this actually mean?

First of all. Is the treaty over? Not officially — not yet.

India hasn’t completely walked away from the treaty. The language used is that the treaty is being held “in abeyance” — meaning it's temporarily paused, not scrapped.

But that pause sends a strong political signal.

Syed Jamat Ali Shah, Pakistan’s former Indus Commissioner, told Nukta: "Eight years ago [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi said blood and water will not flow together. Never before such words had come out of a prime minister's office. Now it shows India's intent."

So, while the pipes aren’t being turned off overnight, the pause could be step one toward a deeper unraveling.

Can India really stop the water?

Water is not like oil or gas — you can’t just flip a switch.

According to Shah, India doesn’t have the infrastructure to block or divert rivers at will.

During monsoon months, it’s physically impossible to stop the overwhelming flow of water, he said.

Even during dry months like January or February, any disruptions would be limited, he added.

So while India can change how it manages its rivers, the water itself keeps flowing, at least for now.

What was the treaty doing anyway?

Before this suspension, the treaty required India and Pakistan to:

• Hold annual meetings between water commissioners.
• Allow inspection visits of river infrastructure.
• Share flood data in advance.
• Notify each other six months before starting any new river project.

All these processes helped prevent surprises and conflicts.

So what changes now?

Speaking to Press Trust of India, A.K. Saxena, India's former Indus commissioner, said here’s what India could do with the treaty paused:

• Skip consultations with Pakistan on new dams or hydropower projects.
• Stop sharing flood data, which is critical during monsoon.
• Flush and refill reservoirs whenever it wants — not just in monsoon — which could hurt Pakistan’s crops if done during sowing season.
• Ignore design restrictions for projects on Western rivers like Chenab and Jhelum.
• Bar Pakistani officials from visiting Indian river projects — a big shift, since these inspections were part of regular checks and balances.

What could this mean for Pakistan?

While water won’t stop flowing immediately, the rules of the game have changed. Over time, if India starts building or operating dams without oversight, Pakistan could face reduced water availability, especially in farming zones like Punjab.

It might also have less time to prepare for floods.

Shah says Pakistan needs to act smart, suggesting the government form a dedicated commission of experts and diplomats to plan a firm, strategic response.

Is there a legal way to end the treaty?

Technically, no. The treaty doesn’t have a formal exit clause.

But Saxena points out that under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention, countries can leave treaties if there’s a “fundamental change of circumstances.” India could argue that escalating tensions or repeated attacks justify such a move.

Still, that would be a long legal and diplomatic road — and likely face international scrutiny.