What would you do as Pakistan’s finance minister? Analysts and experts weigh in

The most anticipated day of the year for economists, analysts, etc. is close — the budget for fiscal year 2025-26 is set to be announced on June 10.

The budget size is expected to be PKR 20 trillion with the revenue collection target likely to be PKR 14 trillion. The government expects the economy to grow around 4% in the financial year ending June 30, 2026.

But as the noise around the budget grows, Nukta asked analysts and experts what they would include in the budget if they were the finance minister.

Amayed Ashfaq Tola, president of Tola Associates

"Abolish Tajir Dost Scheme. Tax rate should be 1% across the board up to PKR 30 million. Minimum tax should be applicable on the over and above to be charged on the Reverse Charge Mechanism under Section 236G and 236H."

Secondly, he said he would implement a faceless, paperless e-assessment system using artificial intelligence for income tax and customs, which would include remote hearings and automated scrutiny.

Separately, Tola pointed out that the current benchmark interest rate was 11% while inflation fell to a historic low of 0.3% in April, which meant the real interest rate was 11.3%. Therefore, the interest rate should be reduced by 3.5-5.5%, he said.

Ali Nawaz, CEO at Chase Securities

He said he would focus on two key areas: tax reforms and broadening the tax base, and an export-led growth strategy.

" Pakistan has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in the region. Increasing revenue is essential for reducing fiscal deficits and dependency on external borrowing," he noted.

Moreover, Pakistan has a persistent trade deficit and low value-added exports. Strengthening exports is crucial for building foreign exchange reserves and reducing current account pressure. This would lead to greater forex stability, job creation, and sustainable GDP growth, he added.

Faisal Shaji, chief strategist at Standard Capital

Shaji said he would allocate more money to government schools and raise teachers' salaries while bringing them under a digital system.

He also said he would abolish the tax collection body — Federal Board of Revenue — and set up a new body where income tax would be completely integrated with businesses in the shape of POS machines.

"There will be digitally integrated machines which will link farms, petrol stations, and retail outlets with tax body. There won't be any middlemen," he added.

Jibran Sarfraz, equity expert

Any person holding the portfolio of finance minister would be limited by the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Sarfraz said.

"However, if given a free hand, my first objective would be to increase allocation for health and education as both help nurture the society and economy."

Moreover, he would reduce the tax rate on the salaried class in addition to simplifying the tax system and giving incentives to increase the tax net in line with what other countries have done.

Shankar Talreja, research analyst at Topline Securities

Talreja said he would tax the entire retail chain.

Moreover, he would also ensure complete digitization to eliminate corruption and streamline taxes with exports to take the country to new heights, he added.

Abdul Azeem, head of research at Al-Habib Capital

Azeem said he would focus on two things: external and fiscal accounts.

He would implement rigorous oversight of exports by matching Letters of Credit (LCs) with actual shipment values to prevent under-invoicing.

Moreover, he would boost formal remittance inflows through attractive incentives and manage strategic assets like Reko Diq and Saindak with transparency to maximize export earnings. He would also facilitate industrial foreign direct investments from China and Gulf countries with conditions for technology transfer, local employment, and domestic value addition.

"[I would] centralize all assets using CNIC linkage — covering bank accounts, properties, investments, and business activities — to verify income declarations and enforce fair taxation. I would eliminate hoarding via digital inventory tracking and strengthen inter-agency coordination to curb tax evasion, increase the tax-to-GDP ratio, and reduce dependence on external borrowing," he concluded.

Shahbaz Ashraf, CIO at FRIM Ventures

Ashraf would widen the tax net by bringing informal sectors into the formal economy, use technology (e.g., digital payment tracking, NADRA-linkage) to improve compliance, simplify tax procedures to encourage businesses and individuals to pay taxes voluntarily, provide consistent policy support to export-oriented industries (textiles, IT, agro-processing), improve logistics, reduce regulatory red tape, and stabilize currency policy, and facilitate trade agreements with regional blocs and new markets.