USDA warns of wheat crisis in Pakistan, 1.7 million tons may be imported

In a blow to Pakistan’s food security, the country may be forced to import up to 1.7 million tons of wheat as domestic production plunges, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned in its latest report.

The USDA forecasts Pakistan’s wheat output for 2025-26 at 27.5 million metric tons — a staggering 13% drop from the record 2024-25 harvest of 31.5 million tons. The decline is primarily due to a 7% reduction in cultivation area and unusually dry weather conditions, which have persisted since October.

“Rainfall remained below average throughout the growing season, while temperatures were significantly higher than normal,” the report stated, raising concerns over long-term climate impacts and inadequate water infrastructure.

No major water reservoirs have been built in decades, and provincial disputes over irrigation water between Punjab and Sindh continue to hinder any progress. Meanwhile, the federal government’s decision not to purchase wheat at a support price has further complicated the situation, pushing many farmers to switch to alternate crops such as rapeseed, pulses, and vegetables.

Mahmood Nawaz Shah, president of the Sindh Abadgar Association, criticized what he called the government’s “indifferent attitude” toward farmers.“Growers in Sindh are being forced to sell wheat as low as PKR 50 per kilogram,” Shah said. “The government was once the largest buyer. Now, we are left at the mercy of hoarders and profiteers.”

Shah added that current policies favor speculators and short-term investors rather than consumers or farmers. “If the government is moving toward deregulation, then at least allow farmers to export wheat,” he said. “The international price is around PKR 67 per kilogram — far better than what we get locally.”

With wheat being a staple for millions in Pakistan, analysts warn that failure to address these structural issues could worsen food insecurity in the coming months.