Afghan refugees: Threats or scapegoats

Pakistan deported over 1 million Afghan refugees over the past two years, citing terrorism and crime concerns.

But did the policy achieve its security goals?

The data tells a complex story: terrorism deaths rose from 689 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024 (45% increase), despite mass deportations. In 2025, deaths have already reached 2,414 (Jan-Sept), making it potentially the deadliest year for militancy in Pakistan's history.

As Pakistan-Afghanistan relations deteriorate and Taliban-mediated talks collapse, let's examine whether refugees were the real security threat, or whether they became scapegoats for a struggling counterterrorism strategy.