Will Pakistan's political scion Bilawal clarify stance with ruling alliance?

Pakistan’s political scion Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is expected to announce a major policy decision on Friday amid an ongoing dispute with the government over provincial water resource allocation, a party insider said.

Bhutto, who leads the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), is part of a coalition government with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). The two parties have taken turns to rule Pakistan over the last five decades.

Sindh’s Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro, in an exclusive interview with Nukta, confirmed that the announcement will be made at a public gathering in Larkana, marking the death anniversary of PPP founder and former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

Shoro, who is also a Member of the Provincial Assembly (MPA) from Hyderabad, said that Bilawal will address the controversial construction of new canals on the Indus River.

“Bilawal Bhutto will openly discuss this issue and announce PPP’s policy regarding its relationship with the federal government,” he said.

The statement came in response to criticism of the PPP’s position. While the party is protesting against the federal government's canal projects in Sindh, it remains a coalition partner in the same government. Critics argue this presents a contradiction.

If PPP cannot stop these projects, why does it remain in the federal government? Shoro was asked.

Shoro identified the Cholistan Canal as the most controversial project. He noted that it has not yet been approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNIC) due to Sindh's opposition. “The matter is also under discussion in the Council of Common Interests (CCI),” he said.

PPP aims to pressure the federal government to cancel the project at both forums, Shoro added.

“If Sindh’s position is ignored and the project is approved, then PPP will have other options regarding its alliance with the government,” he warned.

Bilawal’s address will determine the party’s future in the federal government, but the key question remains: Why has the PPP found itself in this difficult position?

The controversy revolves around the construction of new canals on the Indus River, a highly sensitive issue in Sindh -- PPP’s stronghold. Sindh’s people fear the canals will divert water away from their province, turning fertile land into barren desert.

A lack of fresh river water could also devastate the Indus Delta, leading to seawater intrusion and mass displacement. The movement against these canals, initially led by nationalist political groups, has gained momentum, with civil society and the general public now actively opposing the projects.

The Sindh Provincial Assembly has passed a unanimous resolution demanding the federal government halt the projects. PPP is under pressure from its Sindhi voter base to either force the government to cancel the projects or exit the coalition.

The Zardari factor

Adding to PPP’s challenges is the perception that President Asif Ali Zardari approved these projects. Reports suggest the approval was given during a meeting chaired by Zardari on July 8, 2024. This has fueled accusations that the PPP’s leadership is complicit in the alleged conspiracy against Sindh.

Zardari denied approving the projects in a speech to Parliament on March 10, 2025. He urged the federal government to consult provinces before making such decisions.

Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah backed Zardari’s stance on March 29, stating that the Presidency’s meeting minutes had wrongly attributed the approval to Zardari. He called it an administrative error by the Presidential Secretariat.

This raises a key question: If the Presidential Secretariat falsely recorded a decision in Zardari’s name, why has no action been taken against those responsible?

Despite nine months passing, the Presidency has not issued a formal correction. Since these minutes were linked to the approval process of the Cholistan Canal project, political analysts argue that a written mistake in official records can only be corrected through a formal notification, not just political statements.

When asked about this, Sindh’s Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro said Zardari’s clarification in Parliament should be sufficient.

But political observers believe that mere statements will not satisfy the people of Sindh. They argue that only two actions can restore public trust: either the federal government cancels the canal projects or PPP withdraws from the PML-N-led government.

The canals controversy

The federal government plans to construct six new canals, five on the Indus River and one on the Sutlej River. These are the Rainee Canal and Thar Canal in Sindh, the Kacchi Canal in Balochistan, the Chashma Right Bank Canal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the Cholistan Canal and Greater Thal Canal in Punjab.

Three of these canals, Rainee, Kacchi, and Chashma Right Bank, have been under construction since before General Pervez Musharraf’s era. Experts from Sindh had raised objections to them at that time as well. Now, these canals are part of the Pakistan Green Initiative, a program aimed at expanding corporate farming in the country.

Under the 1991 Indus River System water agreement, any new irrigation project requires approval from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA). On January 25, 2024, IRSA issued a water supply certificate for the construction of the Cholistan Canal. However, Sindh’s IRSA representative, Ehsan Lagari, opposed the decision.

Speaking to Nukta, Lagari said he submitted a dissenting note questioning how new land could be irrigated when the Indus River System is already facing a water shortage.

IRSA’s records mention a water availability of either 117 million acre-feet (MAF) or 14.3 MAF in the Indus River System. However, the actual water flow has been, on average, 16.6% lower. Both Punjab and Sindh have already suffered from this shortfall.

“If there is no additional water available, how can new lands be irrigated in any province?” Lagari questioned.

Punjab has claimed that the Cholistan Canal will be fed from its water share. However, Sindh remains concerned that Punjab has not specified which areas will receive reduced water to compensate for the new canal. This raises fears that the water may ultimately be taken from Sindh’s share to irrigate the new lands of Cholistan, exacerbating the already tense situation.

The Cholistan Canal, which will be a 176-kilometer-long canal, will draw water from the Sulemanki Barrage on the Sutlej River. The canal, requiring 4,120 cusecs of water, is a key component of the Pakistan Green Initiative, under which the Punjab government has leased 1.2 million acres of land.

Punjab has presented a technical justification for the project, arguing that from 1976 to 2024, an average of 27 MAF of water has flowed downstream from Kotri Barrage to the sea annually. According to Punjab’s calculations, its share of this water under the 1991 Indus Water Accord is 1.3 MAF, and the provincial government plans on using only 0.8 MAF annually for the Cholistan Canal, suggesting that the diversion falls within its allocated share.

Sindh, on the other hand, disputes Punjab’s figures. It argues that from 1976 to 2000, the average annual water flow from the Indus River to the sea downstream of Kotri Barrage was 40 MAF. However, from 2001 to 2024, this average dropped dramatically to just 14 MAF.

Sindh officials point out that in the past 22 years, there were only four years in which floods allowed water to flow downstream for two months. In the remaining years, no water reached the Kotri Barrage’s downstream areas for as long as six months.

Experts from Sindh warn that reduced water flow to the sea will have devastating consequences. They cite international studies indicating that to maintain the Indus Delta’s fragile ecosystem and prevent seawater intrusion, at least 8.6 MAF of river water must flow downstream to Kotri each year.

They also highlight additional pressures on Pakistan’s water resources, noting that India can block 2.5 MAF of water from the Eastern Rivers, Sutlej and Ravi, under the Indus Waters Treaty.

Meanwhile, the Diamer-Bhasha Dam is expected to require between 6 and 6.5 MAF of water, while the Greater Cholistan Scheme would demand an additional 5 MAF, water that Sindh argues may not be available under current conditions.

With PPP set to announce its stance later today, the Cholistan Canal remains a critical test of the party’s commitment to Sindh’s water rights and its alliance with the federal government.