Lower food prices bring Pakistan's weekly inflation down by 0.09%

Pakistan’s weekly inflation decreased by 0.09% in the week ending December 25 due to lower food prices, according to official data.

On a year-on-year basis, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) went up by 2.83%.

According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the biggest week-on-week decrease was observed in the prices of potatoes (10.37%), tomatoes (9.64%), onions (7.43%), sugar (4.22%), and pulse gram (1.76%).

On the other hand, a major increase was recorded in the prices of chili powder, which went up by 6.26%, followed by chicken (5.29%), bananas (2.46%), electricity (1.67%), and garlic (1.50%).

During the week from December 18-24, out of 51 items, prices of 13 (25.49%) items increased, 11 (21.57%) items decreased and 27 (52.94%) items remained stable.

The price of wheat flour registered an increase of 22.56% year-on-year, followed by sugar (16.32%), beef (13.01%), and gur (12.46%).

Inflation trackers

The SPI, which tracks the prices of 51 essential commodities from 50 markets across 17 cities, is used as a key gauge of short-term inflation trends.

Pakistan tracks inflation weekly and monthly. The former is called the SPI, while the latter is tracked through the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

In November, the CPI or headline inflation rose to nearly 6.1%, making it the second straight month with inflation over 6%.

The World Bank has warned that flood-related shocks to food supply could push inflation higher than earlier projections, peaking at 7.2% in FY26 before easing to 6.8% in FY27 as food supply constraints resolve, global commodity and energy prices decline, and the exchange rate remains market-determined.

Earlier this month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Pakistan’s economic growth outlook has strengthened for 2025 and 2026 as prices of key food items have stabilized after spiking in the months following last year’s floods.

The ADB noted that Pakistan’s government has revised its GDP growth estimate for FY25 to 3%, up from an earlier 2.7% projection. Despite disruptions from the June flooding, the economy expanded 5.7% in the fourth quarter, and large-scale manufacturing has grown robustly in recent months of FY26.