Terrorism surge, fragile diplomacy to test Pakistan's resilience in 2025

As Pakistan steps into 2025, its economy shows signs of recovery following one of the toughest years in its history. However, diplomatic challenges and security threats persist, posing significant hurdles for the South Asian nation.

After years of political and economic turmoil, Pakistan’s stability is beginning to return. Amendments like the 26th Constitutional revision have restructured the judiciary, ensuring continuity for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration. Similarly, amendments to the Army Act aim to curb speculation around military leadership tenures. Yet, as terrorism surges and diplomatic tensions deepen, much remains unresolved.

In 2024, terrorism reached its highest level in a decade. According to the Center for Research and Security Studies, violence in Pakistan rose 66% compared to 2023, resulting in 2,526 deaths, including 700 security personnel. The Pakistani military responded decisively, conducting airstrikes on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Afghanistan. These strikes followed cross-border TTP attacks that claimed the lives of 16 Pakistani soldiers.

The airstrikes sparked a sharp rebuke from the Taliban government, which warned that Afghanistan’s regional autonomy was a “red line.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif dismissed the criticism, stating that the TTP’s actions had already crossed Islamabad’s own red lines.

Relations with India, frozen since 2016, show no signs of thawing. Diplomatic hostility, trade barriers, and India’s refusal to play the 2025 Champions Trophy in Pakistan reflect the strained ties. Meanwhile, India has quietly strengthened economic and political relations with the Taliban, complicating Pakistan’s regional strategy further.

Tensions with China, Pakistan’s closest ally, have also grown. A series of attacks targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan have drawn criticism from Beijing, with the Chinese ambassador warning that such incidents could jeopardize the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Islamabad is also grappling with demands for debt restructuring and financing delays from Chinese independent power producers.

On the western front, Iran remains another challenging neighbor. Despite efforts to normalize relations after border clashes in early 2024, Tehran’s diminishing regional influence and potential regime change under U.S. pressure could have significant spillover effects on Pakistan.

Globally, Pakistan’s relations with the United States are under strain. Washington recently imposed sanctions on Pakistan-linked entities, citing concerns over its ballistic missile program. The move comes as Pakistan struggles to maintain balance between its economic ties with the U.S. and its strategic alignment with China.

As Pakistan navigates 2025, it faces the daunting task of balancing diplomacy, countering terrorism, and stabilizing its economy while fostering critical relations with its neighbors and global powers.