Pakistan faces winter gas shortfall risk as LNG disruptions persist

Pakistan faces the risk of a winter gas supply shortfall if disruptions to liquefied natural gas deliveries persist, potentially forcing the government to rely on expensive spot-market purchases, increase domestic gas production and introduce gas load-shedding, according to energy and economic analysts.

Continuing regional conflict and uncertainty surrounding shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted Pakistan’s contracted LNG supplies from Qatar, leaving the country with fewer options to meet seasonal demand. The challenge is compounded by high international spot prices and the possibility that replacement cargoes may not be available when needed. Pasted text

Could Pakistan face a gas shortage this winter?

Pakistan faces a significant risk of a winter supply gap if LNG disruptions continue, although analysts do not expect a nationwide shortage to be inevitable. Domestic gas production, hydropower, selective spot purchases and any Qatari cargoes that arrive safely could help bridge the gap, with gas load management likely during periods of peak demand.

Muhammad Yasin, president of the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan and chairman of its Research and Publications Committee, said the risk of a supply gap during the winter of 2026-27 was significant if the conflict and shipping disruptions continued.

However, he cautioned against concluding that Pakistan would necessarily face a nationwide shortage, noting that the government could use domestic gas, hydropower, targeted spot LNG purchases and any Qatari cargoes able to reach the country safely.

“The more immediate concern is therefore the possibility of a winter supply gap and the need for gas load management,” Yasin said, particularly during periods of peak household and power-sector demand.

According to information cited by Yasin from the Independent System and Market Operator, the power sector alone could require as much as 400 million cubic feet per day of gas during winter. Pasted text

The government’s ability to bridge the gap will depend on how much domestic production can be increased, whether LNG cargoes can be secured and how much additional fuel the country can afford to import without adding substantially to energy costs.

Spot LNG offers costly and uncertain solution

Haris Sohail, an economist at the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development, said Pakistan could not fully compensate for disrupted Qatari supplies through domestic production because output increases were limited and imported spot LNG was considerably more expensive.

“On average, around three-quarters of Pakistan’s gas demand is met using domestic gas and one-quarter using imported LNG,” Sohail said, citing PRIED’s 2026 research.

The government has responded to the disruption by increasing domestic gas production, including output that had previously been curtailed, and seeking additional LNG cargoes through international tenders. Pasted text

But Sohail said these measures might not be sufficient to prevent supply restrictions if the disruption continued into winter.

“Because domestic production can only be increased to a certain extent and spot cargoes are considerably more expensive, the government is likely to rely on demand-side management, including gas load shedding,” he said.

Pakistan LNG Ltd. has sought emergency cargoes to bridge the supply gap, but procurement has been complicated by high offers and a lack of bids in some tenders.

Yasin cited a September offer of USD 26.969 per million British thermal units that Pakistan rejected, compared with USD 21.88 per million British thermal units for a July cargo. Pasted text

He said the government should combine selective spot purchases with maximum use of domestic gas, available hydropower and demand management while prioritizing essential sectors, including households, power generation, industry and fertilizer production.

The July procurement experience demonstrated that emergency purchases could help avoid an immediate shortage after two QatarEnergy cargoes were canceled under force majeure, Yasin said. Pakistan subsequently secured a spot cargo that arrived at Port Qasim.

Nevertheless, reliance on spot LNG carries the risk of higher procurement costs and uncertain availability, making it difficult to treat emergency imports as a long-term solution. Pasted text

Abdul Azeem, head of research at Al Habib Capital Markets, offered a more optimistic assessment, saying increasing domestic gas exploration should help maintain local supplies and mitigate a potential winter shortfall.

If a deficit emerges, the government could seek additional spot LNG cargoes or additional supplies from Qatar, he said.

Qatar deliveries remain uncertain

The prospect of further Qatari LNG deliveries remains uncertain as Pakistan seeks to restore a more predictable supply schedule.

Yasin said Pakistan received two Qatari cargoes in September, arriving on September 10 and September 23, demonstrating that deliveries remained possible when safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz could be secured.

He said QatarEnergy had extended force majeure affecting LNG deliveries to Pakistan into November because of continuing disruption around the strait. Reuters separately confirmed that Pakistan was among the Asian clients notified of the extension. Reuters

“Normal deliveries should not be assumed under the current circumstances,” Yasin said, adding that Pakistan should maintain alternative procurement options rather than base its winter planning entirely on the restoration of Qatari supplies. Pasted text

Sohail was similarly cautious about the timing of a resumption in regular shipments.

“It is difficult to say when LNG supplies from Qatar will resume,” he said, warning that the conflict could become a prolonged disruption rather than a short-term interruption.

He said Pakistan might therefore be unable to rely on the prompt return of Qatari LNG to cover its winter requirements.

Azeem, however, pointed to continued arrivals as evidence that supplies had not stopped altogether.

The differing assessments highlight the uncertainty facing energy planners: cargoes may still arrive, but the timing and volume of future shipments cannot be treated as assured. Pasted text

Imports have fallen sharply from normal levels

Pakistan’s recent LNG import pattern illustrates the scale of the disruption.

According to Yasin, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority monthly regasified LNG computations recorded 36 cargoes between October 2025 and January 2026, averaging nine cargoes per month.

By comparison, available OGRA records for March through September 2026 indicated an average of about three cargoes per month across the months for which computations were issued, a reduction of roughly two-thirds from the earlier monthly average. Pasted text

The decline has increased Pakistan’s exposure to spot-market procurement at a time when international prices are elevated and cargo availability is uncertain.

Azeem estimated that Pakistan imported an average of approximately 540 million cubic feet per day of LNG between October 2025 and September 2026.

The figures cover different periods and measure different aspects of supply: Yasin’s comparison concerns cargo arrivals during two periods, while Azeem’s estimate refers to average daily import volumes over a full year. Pasted text

The reduced availability of LNG has implications beyond the gas market. Imported LNG is an important fuel for gas-fired power generation, while domestic gas also serves households, industry and fertilizer producers.

A supply shortage could therefore intensify competition among consumers and require the government to determine which sectors receive available gas during peak demand periods.

Winter demand raises pressure on households

Sohail said the seasonal pattern of gas consumption could make the coming winter more challenging than the summer period.

During summer, gas demand is driven partly by gas-fired power plants used to meet evening electricity demand when air-conditioning consumption peaks. The government responded to the current disruption by increasing coal-fired generation and introducing evening electricity load-shedding, he said.

In winter, household demand for heating, hot water and cooking becomes more important, potentially raising overall gas requirements. Pasted text

“If the LNG disruption continues into winter, Pakistan could therefore face a serious gas shortage,” Sohail said.

He said the government would likely resort to gas load-shedding if supplies remained constrained, particularly because expensive spot LNG might be too costly to provide to households at prevailing domestic prices.

The prospect of rationing highlights the difficulty of balancing energy affordability with the need to maintain supplies to households and productive sectors. More expensive imported fuel could raise the cost of power generation and place additional pressure on electricity and gas consumers. Pasted text

Electrification could reduce seasonal dependence on gas

Sohail said Pakistan could use the current disruption as an opportunity to accelerate the electrification of residential energy consumption by encouraging households to switch from gas appliances to electric heaters, water heaters and stoves.

Research by Agora Energiewende and the LUMS Energy Institute in 2026 found that electric water heaters were available at broadly comparable prices to gas alternatives and that the price gap for space heaters was relatively small, while electric cooking equipment was substantially more expensive.

The government could help overcome the initial cost of switching by subsidizing electric stoves and encouraging retailers to offer installment-based purchases, similar to arrangements used for solar panels, Sohail said.

He argued that residential electrification could help manage the immediate gas shortage while addressing Pakistan’s longer-term seasonal imbalance in energy demand.

Shifting some household consumption to electricity could reduce the winter peak in gas demand while increasing electricity use during months when power consumption patterns differ from those in summer.

However, such a shift would also require sufficient electricity generation and reliable grid supplies to accommodate additional winter demand. Electrification would therefore complement, rather than eliminate, the need for careful power-sector and fuel planning. Pasted text

Diversification needed beyond emergency procurement

Yasin said Pakistan needed a longer-term strategy to reduce its exposure to international LNG disruptions rather than repeatedly depending on costly emergency cargoes.

The strategy should include diversifying LNG suppliers, negotiating more flexible contractual arrangements, improving demand forecasting and strengthening strategic fuel planning.

Expanding hydropower, renewable energy and nuclear generation, alongside greater use of indigenous fuels where economically viable, could further reduce dependence on imported LNG, he said. Pasted text

The immediate priority, however, is to secure sufficient fuel for winter while limiting the cost of replacement supplies and protecting essential consumers.

Pakistan’s ability to avoid severe shortages will depend on the duration of the regional conflict, the availability and price of spot LNG, the reliability of Qatari shipments and the extent to which domestic production and alternative energy sources can offset lost imports.

With winter approaching, analysts agree that the country faces difficult supply-management decisions, although they differ on the likelihood and severity of a shortage. Yasin and Sohail warn of significant risks if disruptions persist, while Azeem expects rising domestic exploration to provide a degree of protection against a potential shortfall.