Senate race in Pakistan’s KP heats up as opposition seeks to curb PTI’s influence

As Pakistan prepares for its Senate elections, political maneuvering has intensified in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where the contest is shaping up to be a test of strength between the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and an increasingly coordinated opposition bloc.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has set July 21 as the polling date for 11 Senate seats from the KP Assembly -- an election already delayed by legal disputes and now clouded by fresh allegations of vote-buying and political manipulation.

The Senate elections in KP had initially been halted on April 2, 2024, when the ECP suspended polling, citing the incomplete status of the provincial assembly due to the delay in administering the oath to members on reserved seats. The situation left the house constitutionally incomplete, making elections on those 11 seats untenable at the time.

However, following a Supreme Court ruling on the allocation of reserved seats, the ECP reinstated its previous notification and announced the new election schedule for KP. In addition to the 11 KP seats, the upcoming Senate polls will also include voting on two other seats -- one vacated after the resignation of Sania Nishtar from KP, and another following the death of Senator Sajid Mir from Punjab.

‘Auction, not election’: JUI-F leader blasts vote-buying culture

Senior Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) leader Senator Hafiz Hamdullah has strongly criticized the rising cost of securing lawmakers’ votes, alleging that individual Members of the Provincial Assembly (MPAs) are being offered up to PKR 220 million for their four votes.

“Elections have turned into auctions,” Hamdullah told Nukta. “These assemblies didn’t emerge from elections -- they were produced through Form 47s [a reference to allegedly manipulated election results], and now those behind them will be running markets in the Senate polls too. Members are being traded like sheep and goats.”

He accused the PTI government -- particularly during the tenure of former KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak -- of institutionalizing vote-buying, especially in KP and Balochistan, and urged immediate steps to halt horse trading.

High-stakes contest for major political players

While backdoor dealings intensify, top political leaders are stepping into the field to finalize candidate lists and cement alliances. PTI, which holds a numerical edge in the KP Assembly, is still awaiting final approval of its nominees from its jailed founder, Imran Khan.

Among those considered strong contenders for the general seats are Murad Saeed, Faisal Javed, Mirza Afridi, Noor-ul-Haq Qadri, and Hafeez-ur-Rehman.

For technocrat seats, PTI is expected to nominate Azam Swati, while Aisha Bano is being fielded for one of the two women’s reserved seats. Sajida Zulfiqar has been nominated for the seat vacated by Sania Nishtar.

Opposition eyes coordinated strategy

Facing an uphill battle, the opposition alliance -- comprising JUI-F, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) -- is actively strategizing to deny PTI a clean sweep. The coalition is looking to collectively secure at least five seats, according to party insiders.

So far, two rounds of discussions have taken place among opposition leaders, though no final agreement has been reached. PPP's central leader Shazia Marri told Nukta that the goal is to finalize a consensus list of candidates through cooperation with JUI-F and PML-N.

“If we secure the support of PTI’s parliamentary breakaway faction, we believe the opposition can win a significant number of Senate seats,” Marri added.

From the opposition camp, likely nominees include Maulana Atta-ul-Haq Darwish and Dilawar Khan from Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), Niaz Amir Muqam -- the son of PML-N’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa president Amir Muqam -- and Talha Mehmood and Rubina Khalid from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

However, Senator Talha Mehmood’s defection from JUI-F to PPP has caused tensions within the opposition bloc. Although JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman has met with PPP veteran Khursheed Shah, KP Governor Faisal Karim Kundi, and PML-N’s Rana Sanaullah, no conclusive power-sharing formula has emerged.

'Form 47 assemblies' and the legacy of controversy

The Senate elections come amid a broader struggle over the legitimacy of KP's current assembly. The June 27 Supreme Court ruling, which ordered a reallocation of 25 reserved seats -- originally won by PTI but reassigned to opposition parties by the ECP on July 2 -- triggered political volatility and legal wrangling.

While PTI retains a majority of 93 directly elected MPAs, the opposition bloc now holds 53 seats, with 35 independents holding the balance of power. These independents—many previously affiliated with PTI -- have become the key swing group in the upcoming Senate vote.

Sources close to the opposition say that their alliance strategy hinges on persuading enough of these independents to cross the aisle.

Senate candidate breakdown

The initial list of Senate nominees, submitted to the ECP on March 27, included:

 
• 16 candidates for general seats
 
• 6 for technocrat seats
 
• 4 for reserved women’s seats
 

Among these, 21 candidates filed as independents, though most are known to be PTI-aligned.

With KP’s Senate elections just days away, the outcome will not only shape the province’s voice in Pakistan’s upper house but could also determine whether Imran Khan’s PTI retains influence over future federal legislation or whether a reinvigorated opposition coalition, led by Fazlur Rehman and his allies, manages to wrest control of the chamber.