Uganda faces up to $8.3 billion loss over anti-gay law, charity warns

A charity said Wednesday that Uganda's anti-gay law could cost it up to $8.3 billion over five years and urged the World Bank not to resume lending until the legislation is repealed.

Open for Business is a Britain-based charity that calculates the economic fall-out from discrimination against LGBTQ people around the world.

Its most recent report, released last week, found that Uganda has already lost between $470 million and $1.66 billion since passing its Anti-Homosexuality Act of 2023.

It is one of the harshest anti-gay laws in the world, imposing penalties of up to life in prison for consensual same-sex relations and contains provisions that make "aggravated homosexuality" an offence punishable by death.

The World Bank froze lending to Uganda in the wake of the law, and Open for Business said it had also missed out on foreign investment, trade and tourism, while also raising costs for healthcare, policing and due to loss of talent and productivity.

It estimated the costs over five years between $2.3 billion and $8.3 billion, and said these were "conservative estimates".

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni "is engaged in this war with LGBTQ people that is costing the country a huge amount of money," Open for Business chief executive Dominic Arnall told AFP.

"What they decide to do is going up to them. But there are very hard economic consequences to the path they've chosen," he added.

The Ugandan government did not immediately respond to requests for comment from AFP.

The charity was set up with help from the Clinton Foundation and has issued similar reports on countries around the world.

A report on Hungary, which passed a law against "promoting" homosexuality to minors in 2021, is due in November.

The World Bank has faced criticism from activists over moves to restart lending to Uganda through "mitigation measures", including guarantees that no discrimination would occur on projects it funds.

"The proposed mitigation measures don't even mention LGBTQ people," said Arnall, which he said was a "bit ridiculous".

"The only mitigation that would be sufficient is the complete removal of the (Anti-Homosexuality Act)."

Arnall said there were increasing instances of governments and individual politicians around the world seeking to target LGBTQ people and other minorities "to make a name for themselves".

Often these are funded by wealthy anti-gay organisations in the United States, Russia and South Korea, he added.

"This isn't just about Africa, this is a global problem that's backed by quite a lot of money," said Arnall.

But he said the economic loss witnessed in Uganda may have helped stall similar anti-gay bills in Kenya, Ghana and elsewhere.

"I'm yet to meet a government that isn't concerned about direct foreign investment or their GDP. So, this is often the only argument that could be convincing."