US midterms 2026: 470 seats, $12 billion and one absent president

Americans vote in the US midterms on November 3 to decide control of Congress, governorships and thousands of state offices.

The elections will shape the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency, although the president himself is not on any ballot.

What are the US midterms?

The US midterms are national elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 House members, 35 Senate seats, 36 governorships and thousands of state legislators.

The result decides whether Republicans keep control in Washington or Democrats gain power to constrain Trump's agenda and scrutinize his administration.

How many seats are up for election in the US midterms?

All 435 House seats are contested every two years, and 218 is the majority threshold. Democrats need a net gain of three seats from the 2024 result to take control. Republicans won a 220-215 majority then, although deaths, resignations and a party switch mean the House now stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies.

For Republicans, a net loss of two seats is survivable, but three is not.

In the Senate, 35 seats are being contested: 33 in the normal six-year rotation, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage in the 100-seat chamber, counting two independents who vote with the Democrats. Democrats therefore need a net gain of four seats to reach the 51 required for control, since a 50-50 tie would be broken by Republican Vice President JD Vance.

Thirty-six states are electing governors, nearly three-quarters of the total. Across 88 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, 6,139 seats are being regularly contested.

What do the polls say about the US midterms?

A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted September 14-15 found Democrats ahead of Republicans by 53 percent to 41 percent among registered voters asked which party's congressional candidate they would support. The same survey put Democrats ahead among independent voters by 57 percent to 32 percent.

Trump's approval rating ranged from 32 percent to 41 percent in several major September surveys. Reuters/Ipsos put him at 32 percent among US adults, the lowest of his political career, while Marist recorded 39 percent and NBC News 41 percent among registered voters. The surveys use different methodologies and populations, so the figures are not directly comparable, but none suggests an abundance of presidential coattails.

NBC News also found that 55 percent of registered voters said Trump's policies had hurt the economy, against 26 percent who said they had helped it.

How much money is being spent on the 2026 midterms?

Advertising spending on the 2025-26 election cycle is expected to reach about $12 billion. AdImpact forecasts $11.6 billion, exceeding both the previous midterm record of $8.9 billion in 2022 and even the 2024 presidential cycle. Kinetiq Political Insights' latest estimate is slightly higher at $11.96 billion, with a projected range of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion.

According to AdImpact, advertising spending in the California governor's primary alone reached $330 million. That made the preliminary contest to choose November's candidates the most expensive gubernatorial race on record. And that was merely the warm-up.

How many candidates are running in the 2026 midterms?

A total of 2,497 candidates ran in US congressional primaries this year, the most in any election cycle since at least 2014. An extraordinary 2,232 of them were chasing House seats.

On November 3, 44 House races are rematches between the same major-party candidates who fought for the seat in 2024. Including state and local contests, there are 474 electoral rematches nationwide. This proves that in American politics, as in Hollywood, there is rarely any objection to a sequel.