US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Xi Jinping's order for the military to be ready by 2027, people familiar with US assessment told Reuters.

Anonymous sources cite readiness delays and Beijing's interest in Taiwan's 2028 election.

Will China invade Taiwan in 2027?

US officials now see an invasion in 2027 as unlikely. They say China's military is behind on readiness because of an anti-corruption campaign. Beijing also wants to see the result of Taiwan's 2028 election, which some Chinese officials hope will bring a government more open to Chinese control.

Why does Taiwan's 2028 election matter to Beijing?

Two current US officials, one former US official and another person familiar with the matter described the reasoning. Beijing may increasingly consider force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins a fourth consecutive term, and in particular if President Lai Ching-te wins reelection, the people added.

"If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty," said one of the US officials, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

Lai took office two years ago. He and the DPP champion Taiwan's separate identity from China, a position that frequently angers Beijing, which views the island as an inviolable part of Chinese territory. Taiwan strongly objects to China's claims and says only its people can decide their future.

Is the 2027 date a firm deadline for an invasion?

The assessment, which has not previously been reported, is a significant update to the years-long understanding among US officials that Xi wanted his military ready to potentially take Taiwan by force in 2027. That year marks the centenary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. China has never ruled out using force but has never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order.

Analysts say the 2027 benchmark concerns Chinese military preparedness rather than a timeline for invasion. It has nonetheless created a sense of urgency across multiple US administrations in countering China in the Asia-Pacific region. The US intelligence community hinted at Chinese wariness in its annual threat assessment in March, which said China did not, at least at that point, have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still preferred to take the island without force if possible.

The Pentagon declined to comment. China's US embassy and Taiwan's representative office in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment. In a speech this week, Xi referred to Taiwan and talked about promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations to achieve "reunification."

Could the 2028 US election influence China's plans?

The US is Taiwan's most important international backer and weapons supplier despite a lack of formal diplomatic ties. US officials offered mixed assessments of how far China might treat the 2028 US presidential election as an indicator for military action.

Three of the people familiar with the matter said Beijing may also want to evaluate the outcome of the US election, particularly given rising American voter antipathy toward US military action abroad. The first US official said Beijing viewed both Democrats and Republicans as largely aligned on Taiwan. While China might have a preference, "it doesn't become as decisive a factor in my opinion, as it might have been 15 years ago," the official said.

What has Trump said about Taiwan and arms sales?

US President Donald Trump has downplayed the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during his presidency. He said last year that Xi told him China would not invade while he was in office. Trump made limited comments on Taiwan after hosting Xi in Washington last week, saying only that the issue came up and that Xi understood his position.

China calls Taiwan its single most important issue and a matter of Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity. It has called for an end to US arms sales to Taiwan. Since his May trip to Beijing, Trump has held off on approving a new arms package worth some $14 billion, describing it as a "negotiating chip."

For years, the US strategy has focused on arming Taiwan so that it can hold off Chinese forces long enough for the United States and others to come to its aid.

How is China's anti-corruption drive affecting its military?

Officials say Xi has not rescinded his goal for the People's Liberation Army to have the capabilities to take Taiwan by force by next year. The people said the military did not accomplish as much last year as it probably intended because of the impact of the anti-corruption campaign.

Xi unleashed a sweeping corruption and discipline crackdown after coming to power in 2012. Millions within China's vast bureaucracy have been investigated, and scores of senior party, government and military officials have been purged. The People's Liberation Army has been a target in recent years, and a string of investigations and expulsions has left just two active officials on the formerly seven-member Central Military Commission, including Xi himself, who serves as chair.

What do US officials say about China's military readiness?

According to the US official, China's military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than in the past several years. They bounced back a bit this year, but the official suggested Chinese military officials were dissatisfied with their readiness.

The official said China was believed to have drawn a lesson from the wars in Iran and Ukraine: move quickly once an invasion begins and avoid getting bogged down in a sustained conflict. More work remained for China.

"There are way too many pieces that aren't quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy," the official said.