Venezuelan oil shift could lift tanker rates, Fitch says

A potential redirection of Venezuelan crude oil exports into mainstream tanker markets could lift already elevated freight rates in the near to medium term, rating agency Fitch said, though significant risks remain for global tanker shipping.

Fitch said that if Venezuelan crude — now largely moved by so-called “shadow” tankers to evade sanctions — shifts to the mainstream fleet, demand for compliant vessels could tighten capacity and support higher rates. The agency also identified the possibility of Iranian oil moving from the shadow fleet into regular tankers as an additional upside risk.

However, Fitch warned that the resumption of transit through the Suez Canal and slowing global economic growth are key downside risks that could undermine tanker freight rates.

Venezuela’s crude production represented roughly 0.8% of global output in November and accounted for about 1% of seaborne oil shipments, with most cargoes heading to China. Under emerging arrangements with the United States, seaborne Venezuelan transportation is expected to shift toward the mainstream tanker fleet, even as overall global volumes are unlikely to change quickly because any meaningful increase in Venezuelan output would take time.

Analysts say the structural shift in tanker demand stems from enforcement actions and market developments that are disrupting traditional shadow fleet operations, which have historically transported sanctioned oil from countries such as Venezuela. If more volumes move onto compliant Aframax and Suezmax tankers, that could tighten capacity and bolster freight rates on key routes, particularly those serving the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic markets.

Fitch said that changes in tonne-miles — a measure of transport demand reflecting both volume and distance — and a move away from shadow vessels would likely benefit tanker shipping. Some oil displaced by Venezuelan crude from Latin America or Canada would still require long-haul tanker transport, most likely to Asian buyers such as China, providing additional support for freight rates.

The agency noted that redirecting Venezuelan flows would be supportive of medium-sized tankers, while an increase in shipments to China from regions such as the Middle East could boost demand for very large crude carriers. This assumes a substantial portion of Venezuelan-China trade has operated through the shadow fleet and could shift to mainstream vessels.

Iran, which moves a significantly larger share of crude by sea than Venezuela, remains under sanctions and continues to rely on the shadow fleet. Any move to mainstream tankers similarly would support compliant freight markets, but Fitch described this as an “event risk”. Political instability and export disruptions could also cut transported volumes.

Tanker rates have already climbed amid geopolitical turbulence. Very large crude carrier time charter rates topped $60,000 a day late last year, and Suezmax rates have stayed above $45,000 a day, well above long-term averages as tonne-mile demand has expanded following disruptions such as Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Geopolitical flashpoints linked to Venezuela and Iran are prompting some oil buyers to diversify sources, which in turn supports tonne-mile demand and earnings for tanker owners and operators. But analysts caution that a full resumption of Suez Canal transits — which many shipping lines have only gradually restored — could more than offset benefits from redirected Venezuelan oil, easing freight pressure across tanker and container sectors.

Other factors that could buoy mainstream tanker demand include potential reductions in Russian crude exports, continued shifts from shadow to compliant fleets, increased oil inventories and floating storage arising from supply disruptions or lower prices, and further unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts. Seaborne oil trade expanded in 2025 on higher output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, with similar growth expected in 2026, while rising tonne-miles tied to Russian flows and Red Sea disruption have underpinned tanker demand since 2022.