What's next for the Gaza ceasefire?

The future of the Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain as the first phase of the agreement nears its scheduled end on Saturday. While a second phase is intended to bring a more lasting resolution, it is unclear whether negotiations will progress.

Current status of the ceasefire

The initial 42-day ceasefire, which began on January 19, involved a halt in fighting and the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages for approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners.

Analysts suggest that this phase may be extended, as it aligns with Israel's strategic interests. Max Rodendeck of the International Crisis Group noted that while the second phase is unlikely to begin immediately, the ceasefire itself is not expected to collapse.

Ongoing negotiations

Egypt, alongside Qatar and the U.S., is mediating talks to determine the next steps. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sent a delegation to Cairo, emphasizing the priority of securing the release of more hostages.

Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that Israel favors prolonging the current ceasefire phase rather than transitioning to the second phase.

Hamas, on the other hand, has reiterated its willingness to negotiate but has rejected extending the first phase.

The group has proposed releasing all remaining hostages in a single swap as part of the second phase. However, analysts suggest Hamas lacks the leverage to push Israel into this next step.

Challenges and risks

Despite the ceasefire, sporadic Israeli strikes and live fire have continued in Gaza, with Israel citing security concerns.

Tensions also persist over control of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egypt-Gaza border, which Israel seized during the war. Israel views control of this area as essential for preventing weapons smuggling, while Hamas considers it a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Humanitarian aid remains another point of contention, with Israel expressing concerns about the potential for "dual-use items" to be repurposed into weapons.

The bigger picture

One of the most pressing issues is Gaza’s post-war governance. While Hamas has indicated a willingness to step back from administrative duties, it has not agreed to relinquish security control—something Israel finds unacceptable.

As the situation evolves, the delicate balance between diplomatic efforts and military threats continues. Some analysts believe the U.S., under Donald Trump’s administration, has given Israel the flexibility to resume fighting if it chooses, but pressure to conclude the conflict remains.

The fate of the ceasefire will largely depend on whether Israel and Hamas can navigate these complex negotiations in the coming days.