2025 ICC Champions Trophy: A precedent that can prove costly for Pakistan

The precedent set by the Asia Cup 2023, which was hosted in a hybrid model between Pakistan and Sri Lanka due to India's refusal to play in Pakistan, could have significant ramifications for Pakistan’s hopes of hosting the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy on home soil in its entirety.

The Champions Trophy, scheduled to take place from February 19 to March 9, 2025, is a landmark event for Pakistan cricket, marking the first major International Cricket Council (ICC) event in the country in nearly three decades. However, the lingering uncertainty over India’s participation remains a significant roadblock.

Despite the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) chairman Mohsin Naqvi expressing optimism about India’s participation, stating, "I am very hopeful as there is no valid reason for India to postpone or cancel the tour. All teams, including India, will participate," the situation remains tense.

The strained political relations between the two nations, which have prevented India from traveling to Pakistan for the last 16 years, are at the heart of the uncertainty. On the contrary, Pakistan has toured India three times since then, most recently for the 2023 ODI World Cup.

The hybrid model: A precedent set by 2023 Asia Cup

The Asia Cup 2023 was a significant marker in this ongoing saga. Originally scheduled to be hosted exclusively in Pakistan, the tournament was ultimately split between Pakistan and Sri Lanka after the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) refused to send its team to Pakistan. The hybrid model was proposed by Pakistan as a compromise to salvage the tournament and retain its hosting rights, but all of India’s matches, including the highly anticipated India-Pakistan clashes, were played in Sri Lanka.

This decision demonstrated Pakistan’s limited bargaining power in the face of a united opposition from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, alongside the BCCI. BCCI’s secretary, Jay Shah, who also served as the president of the Asian Cricket Council (ACC) at the time, played a pivotal role in this decision. Now, with Shah set to assume the role of ICC Chair in December 2024, Pakistan may face a similar predicament leading up to the Champions Trophy.

BCCI secretary Jay Shah poses with the Kolkata Knight Riders mentor Gautam Gambhir during the IPL 2024 final.AFP

The precedent of the Asia Cup’s hybrid model could backfire for Pakistan as they prepare to host the Champions Trophy. India’s participation in the Champions Trophy will ultimately depend on government approval, a fact confirmed by the BCCI. This government stance, driven by political sensitivities, has remained unchanged for years, and the precedent set by the Asia Cup only strengthens India’s case for a hybrid arrangement.

Final to be shifted from Lahore to Dubai?

According to a report from Telegraph.co.uk, alternative options are being informally explored in case India makes it to the final, with Dubai emerging as a likely new venue. This situation creates the unusual possibility that the final's location might not be determined until March 6, just three days before the match, contingent on India's qualification.

This scenario raises significant concerns regarding the logistical and operational challenges of preparing for two potential final venues — Lahore and Dubai — without clarity on the match location until the last minute. If India advances to the semi-finals, that match would also need to be hosted outside Pakistan.

Fans cheer during the 2024 Women's T20 World Cup match between India and Pakistan at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.ICC

The tournament could encounter major complications, as both venues must be prepared for the final, leaving competing teams, match officials, and media in a state of uncertainty until the last moment. Fans and broadcasters would also face difficulties, remaining unsure of the final's location until the tournament's final stages.

A divisive outcome for Pakistan

For Pakistan, the idea of sharing hosting duties or allowing India to play on a neutral venue like Dubai would be a bitter pill to swallow. The 2025 Champions Trophy was awarded to Pakistan by the ICC as a testament to the country's progress in improving security conditions and successfully hosting international teams after years of isolation due to terrorism concerns. This tournament is seen as a golden opportunity to showcase Pakistan’s capacity to host a major global cricketing event and re-establish its status as a top-tier host nation.

Sharing the Champions Trophy with another country would severely undermine Pakistan’s efforts and could dampen the sense of accomplishment that comes with hosting such a prestigious tournament after a nearly 30-year gap. Moreover, it could set a dangerous precedent for future tournaments, where Pakistan’s hosting rights could be continuously undermined by political maneuvering.

A precarious road ahead for Pakistan

Fans wave India’s and Pakistan’s national flags during the Asia Cup 2023 one-day international (ODI) cricket match between India and Pakistan at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium in Kandy on September 2, 2023.AFP

While Naqvi remains optimistic about India’s participation, the political realities and the precedent set by the hybrid model during the Asia Cup suggest that Pakistan may have to compromise once again. With Jay Shah at the helm of the ICC, Pakistan’s hopes of hosting the Champions Trophy entirely within its borders, with India’s full participation, hang in the balance.

Ultimately, the outcome of this situation will have long-lasting implications not only for Pakistan’s hosting rights but also for the future of cricketing relations between the two nations. If history is any indicator, Pakistan may need to prepare for yet another diplomatic and logistical challenge as the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy draws near.