Rising giants: How Arab economies stack up in 2024's global forecast

Which country comes to your mind when you hear the term “top Arab economy”?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the gross domestic product (GDP) for countries worldwide in 2024. Here’s what the data reveals about the Arab countries:

Saudi Arabia is ranked among the world's top 20 economies and is the largest economy in the Arab world. The IMF expects Saudi Arabia's GDP to reach $1.1 trillion in 2024, rising to $1.43 trillion by 2029.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) follows, supported by its focus on economic diversification, building a competitive, knowledge-based economy, and its oil resources. Its GDP is expected to reach $527.80 billion in 2024 and $685.15 billion by 2029.

Egypt ranks third with an expected GDP of $347.59 billion this year, rising to $539.60 billion over the next five years.

Algeria, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait follow, benefiting from oil and gas resources. Their economies are projected to reach $266.78 billion, $265.89 billion, $244.68 billion, and $160.39 billion, respectively, in 2024.

Morocco, Oman, and Tunisia round out the list, with GDP values likely to be $152.37 billion, $108.92 billion, and $54.70 billion, respectively, in 2024.

Lebanon and Syria were ruled out from the IMF’s 2024 list of projected GDPs as data was deemed missing.

World economies over time

The global economic landscape has significantly shifted over the past few decades. Japan once ranked as the world's second-largest economy after the United States from the 1980s up until the early 2000s.

Eventually, China overtook Japan in 2010, marking a seemingly unstoppable rise. Japan is struggling to maintain its fourth-place position after losing the third spot to Germany in 2023.

Japan's economic challenges in recent years include sluggish wage growth, weak domestic demand, and reduced capital spending and investment.

Emerging economies like Brazil have started to stand out, breaking into the world's top 10 economies in 2023, surpassing Mexico.

IMF projections for top economies in 2024

The United States (U.S.) is expected to remain the world's largest economy by GDP in 2024, a position it has held since the end of World War II, with China continuing as the second-largest economy for the past 14 years.

The IMF forecasts that the U.S. economy will reach $28.78 trillion in 2024, surpassing the combined GDP of about 178 countries and exceeding the entire Eurozone's GDP of $16.07 trillion, which includes 20 European nations.

Meanwhile, China's GDP is expected to reach $18.53 trillion this year, surpassing the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, India, and the United Kingdom.

Germany and Japan are likely to hold the third and fourth positions, with their economies reaching $4.6 trillion and $4.1 trillion, respectively, in 2024.

However, the IMF expects Japan to drop to fifth place by 2028, as India is projected to replicate China's rapid economic ascent and rise to the third spot, surpassing both Japan and Germany.

Weakest economies in 2024

The combined value of the world's 10 weakest economies is about $4.7 billion, which is $100 million less than the net worth of the international filmmaker Steven Spielberg.

Tuvalu has the weakest economy valued at $62.09 million in 2023, but it is expected to reach $70 million in 2024. This region is predicted by climate experts to be the first to disappear due to climate change.

Nauru ranks as the second weakest economy, with a projected value of $160 million in 2024. Nauru is the third smallest country in the world after Vatican City and Monaco.