COP29 climate talks enter final stretch: What happens next?

Marathon COP29 climate talks enter their final stretch on Wednesday when the Azerbaijani hosts are due to publish an update on negotiations so far as the summit seeks to agree a new goal on issues including climate finance.

The talks, which began on Nov. 11, are due to end on Friday at 2 p.m. GMT, but COP summits have a history of running long.

Below is a breakdown of the known sticking points and what happens next.

Draft texts

Officials spent the first week trying to agree deals across a range of different issues including finance, carbon markets, the future of fossil fuels and efforts to mitigate the rise in global temperatures.

Now, the outstanding items have been handed over to ministers so they can use their political clout to try to get agreements across the line.

People walk near the venue of the COP29 United Nations climate change conference, in Baku, Azerbaijan November 20, 2024.Reuters

The next steps are about trying to whittle down draft texts containing a huge range of wording options into a final document that can be adopted by consensus at the end of the summit.

Draft texts will be published periodically by the Azerbaijani presidency as they zero in on an acceptable deal.

Climate finance goal

The primary aim of COP29 is to agree a new target for how much money should be provided to developing countries to help them adapt to climate-fueled weather disasters and transition to cleaner energy systems.

A previous goal to provide $100 billion per year expires in 2025. The new goal needs to be $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade, according to experts.

The focus in the negotiating rooms has been on defining the structure of a new target, including what counts as climate finance and who needs to pay in. Only once that is agreed are parties expected to start talking about the size of the target.

Among issues to iron out include whether countries such as China should be counted among the richer core donors, and the degree to which countries should provide finance in the form of grants or loans.

A text has been scheduled for publication on Wednesday evening.

Fossil fuels

Countries have so far struggled to agree on the right way to follow up on a deal at last year's summit to transition from fossil fuels.

European states want to see that commitment referenced throughout any deal at Baku to reinforce the importance of following through with firm action. Others, including the Arab Group of states, argue it does not need to be.

If past COPs are anything to go by, the moment any deal text is published, delegates will be searching for the phrase "fossil fuels" to see if there is any sign of backsliding.

Carbon markets

Talks in Baku began with an early deal on some of the quality standards that would govern a global market for carbon credits, but there is still much to be agreed on, including how to track trades and disclosure rules.

If fully agreed, market watchers expect a U.N.-backed global market could fund billions of dollars of projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from projects such as reforestation.

Scrutiny of the details is intense amid concern that without watertight regulation carbon credits may not deliver the benefits they claim.

Final hours

COPs rarely finish on time. COP28 in Dubai closed almost a full day after the initial deadline; COP27 in Egypt overran by around 36 hours.

In the final hours, delegations consult intensively in private with the presidency on the proposed deal, often through the night, in search of something that can be adopted by consensus.

Once finalized, every country is called to the main hall to begin an hours-long process of formal approval.