Goldman Sachs sees gold prices jumping 20% in 2026 despite market volatility

Gold prices slipped in late October after a blistering months-long rally, raising doubts about whether the metal’s surge was running out of steam. The pullback briefly pushed prices below $4,000 an ounce, after touching record highs near $4,400.

Gold has since recovered, climbing about 6% in early November and rewarding investors who bought the dip. But with year-to-date gains of roughly 60%, some investors are weighing profits as they look toward 2026.

Goldman Sachs, however, expects more upside ahead. Daan Struyven, the bank’s co-head of global commodities research, told the Wall Street Journal that several catalysts remain intact for 2026, even after recent volatility.

Economic pressures reshape outlook

The U.S. economy is still expanding, but weakening labor data and resurgent inflation are complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward, the Journal said. Payroll processor ADP reported that the economy added just 10,000 jobs over the past three months, a sharp slowdown from earlier in the year when monthly additions exceeded 100,000.

Layoffs have also accelerated. Employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, a 175% jump from a year earlier, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data cited by the Journal. Companies have announced more than 1.09 million cuts so far this year, up 65% from the same period in 2024.

Unemployment has inched higher. The jobless rate reached 4.4% in September, compared with 4% in January and the 2023 low of 3.4%. A Resume.org study cited by the Journal found that 40% of companies laid off workers in 2025 and 60% plan additional cuts in 2026.

Inflation is also heating up. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have pushed import costs higher. The Consumer Price Index rose to 3% in September from 2.3% in April, before most tariffs took effect.

The combination of softer job growth and rising inflation has complicated the Fed’s dual mandate. Gold’s October slide followed comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting another 2025 rate cut was not assured. His remarks briefly lifted Treasury yields and strengthened the dollar, reducing gold’s appeal.

Why Goldman still sees upside for 2026

Expectations for a December rate cut have since improved, helping lower yields and steady the dollar. Struyven told the Journal that Russia’s frozen reserves in 2022 served as a “wake-up call” for central banks to stockpile gold, which he described as “the only truly safe asset.”

Goldman forecasts a 20% rise in gold prices in 2026. Struyven said the projection may even be conservative if private investors increase their allocations. Gold ETFs are roughly 70 times smaller than the U.S. Treasury market, meaning even small shifts could drive large moves.

Central bank demand remains a major driver. Banks purchased 64 tonnes of gold in September, up from 21 tonnes in August, and Goldman expects buying to average 80 tonnes a month through 2026. Since 2022, central banks have accumulated more than 1,000 tonnes annually, double the decade-long norm, according to ETF provider VanEck.

Analysts told the Journal that despite temporary pullbacks, the factors supporting gold — lower yields, inflation concerns and aggressive central bank buying — position the metal for continued strength heading into 2026.