Large-scale refugee returns could overwhelm Syria, UN migration agency chief says

Large-scale returns of refugees to Syria could overwhelm the country and even stoke conflict following the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad, the head of the U.N. migration agency said on Friday.

The U.N. refugee agency has estimated that 1 million people will return to Syria in the first six months of 2025. Some European countries have already frozen asylum applications for Syrians.

Syrian migrants wait at the Cilvegozu border gate to cross into Syria, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in the Turkish town of Reyhanli in Hatay province, Turkey, December 10, 2024. Reuters

"We believe that millions of people returning would create conflict within an already fragile society," Amy Pope, director-general of the International Organization for Migration, told a Geneva press briefing after a trip to Syria.

"We are not promoting large-scale returns. The communities, frankly, are just not ready to absorb the people who are displaced," she said, calling for support from donors to help stabilize and rebuild the country.

Pope said she was urging governments to "slow down on any plans to sent people back".

Syrian migrants wait at the Cilvegozu border gate to cross into Syria, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in the Turkish town of Reyhanli in Hatay province, Turkey, December 10, 2024. Reuters

She said some communities could yet flee because of uncertainties about life under the new authorities, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group which once had ties to al-Qaeda.

"We heard from communities, for example, the Christian community, who hasn't yet left, but are very much worried about the next several months and want to make sure that they don't become the targets of attack," Pope said.

Syrian rebels seized control of Damascus on Dec. 8, forcing Assad to flee after more than 13 years of civil war and ending his family's decades-long rule.

People eat ice cream at Bakdash ice cream parlor in Hamidiyeh Souk after rebels seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, on December 9, 2024. REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano

The United States, other Western powers and many Syrians welcomed Assad's fall, but it is not clear whether HTS will impose strict Islamic rule or show flexibility.

There is widespread apprehension among Syrians that the new administration will gravitate towards hardline religious rule, marginalizing minority communities and excluding women from public life.

Top U.S. diplomats were expected to hold Washington's first in-person official meetings with Syria's new de facto rulers led by HTS in Damascus on Friday, hoping to gauge how the former al Qaeda affiliate plans to run the country.