China's Box Office battle: Thunderbolts* arrives

The New Disney movie Thunderbolts* is poised to test China's appetite for Hollywood blockbusters as it opens in cinemas nationwide on Wednesday. It will be the country's first American film to hit movie theatres since a new trade war began.

The film, a part of the sprawling Marvel franchise, was approved for release in China before Washington and Beijing slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on each other.

That meant the movie, which sees an unconventional band of antiheroes brought together to combat a supervillain, escaped China's decision earlier this month to curb Hollywood imports as part of its retaliation against the United States.

42 American films were released in China in 2024, but Chinese audiences have been gravitating away from Hollywood for some time.

Releases so far in 2025 have included Snow White, which earned 9 million yuan ($1.24 million) at the Chinese box office, and Captain America: Brave New World, which earned 104 million yuan.

In comparison, 2025 box office leader Ne Zha 2 has grossed more than 7 billion yuan in its home market.

"It's hard to remember the last American film I watched..." said Beijing resident Pan Lei, a frequent cinema-goer. "I think it should be Dune, four years ago."

Pan, 49, said American films like the Marvel movie franchise have been standard fare for nearly 20 years, and any novelty of their production and visual effects has primarily worn off.

"I miss the days when we could watch wonderful Hollywood films like Titanic, Speed, True Lies, and Iron Man in cinemas," he said, adding: "I think the younger generation doesn't share the same idea of Hollywood as my generation."

While Chinese moviegoers around Pan's age were once accustomed to Hollywood films dominating China's box office, the rapid development of a homegrown industry has seen domestic films with local stars and specifically Chinese stories rise to supplant them over the past decade.

Since 2015, Chinese films have ranked number one at the local box office each year, while the number of foreign films at the top of the box office takings has become rarer.

Analysts say it's doubtful Hollywood films will ever be able to regain their once-dominant position in the Chinese market even without a new trade war and a rise in geopolitical tensions between the United States and China.

"China will continue to dominate its home market," said Stanley Rosen, professor of political science at the University of Southern California. "China has learned a lot from Hollywood — for example, from their earlier collaboration with DreamWorks in Shanghai — and simply does not need the Hollywood blockbusters anymore."

"Only two Hollywood films made over $100 million in China last year, and I don't expect any will do so this year," he added.