A gas shortage is looming for Pakistan after liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from Qatar were completely suspended due to the ongoing war, officials told the Senate Petroleum Committee on Monday.
During a briefing to the committee, the director general LNG said that of the eight LNG cargoes scheduled for March, only two had arrived while six could not reach Pakistan because of the conflict.
Officials warned that the situation may worsen in April. Out of six LNG cargoes expected next month, three are also unlikely to arrive. If the disruption continues, the country could run out of imported gas after April 14.
Emergency plan in place
Authorities said the government has increased domestic gas production to manage the crisis, while an emergency supply plan has been prepared for March.
Under the plan, system gas supply is expected to fall from 655 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to 642 mmcfd. RLNG supply may slightly increase from 28 to 30 mmcfd, but total gas availability is still projected to drop from 683 to 672 mmcfd.
To manage the shortfall, the government plans to prioritize domestic consumers. Gas consumption for households is expected to increase from 399 to 420 mmcfd.
Meanwhile, the commercial sector may see gas allocations reduced from 10 to 8 mmcfd, while supply to process industries could be cut from 140 to 120 mmcfd.
Gas supply to the power sector is expected to increase slightly from 18 to 20 mmcfd, while fertilizer plants may receive 30 mmcfd compared with the current 29 mmcfd.
Captive power plants are likely to face the largest reduction, with allocations expected to drop from 82 to 70 mmcfd.
Officials told the committee that Pakistan could also seek additional LNG under an agreement with a company in Azerbaijan if demand rises. However, LNG from Azerbaijan would cost nearly three times more than existing supplies, according to LNG authorities.
Pakistan's LNG dilemma
Energy analysts say the suspension of Qatari LNG shipments highlights Pakistan’s growing vulnerability to supply disruptions in the global energy market.
Experts note that Pakistan relies heavily on imported LNG to meet winter and industrial demand, leaving the system exposed to geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions. With domestic production declining over the years, the country has limited short-term alternatives.
Analysts warn that cutting gas supply to industries and captive power plants could slow industrial output and increase electricity costs if industries shift to more expensive fuels.
They add that purchasing LNG from Azerbaijan at significantly higher prices could also increase Pakistan’s energy import bill and place additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
In the longer term, experts say Pakistan may need to diversify LNG suppliers, accelerate domestic exploration, and expand renewable energy to reduce dependence on imported gas.
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