Pakistan’s four-province model faces growing pressure as Islamabad plan emerges

Pakistan’s decades-old system of governance, built around just four provinces, is facing growing pressure as concerns mount over whether the country’s administrative structure can keep pace with a population of more than 250 million.

The debate is increasingly shifting away from whether Pakistan needs new provinces and towards a broader question: can greater devolution of power offer a way to govern the country more effectively without redrawing its constitutional map?

A proposed new administrative model for Islamabad could provide the first major test of that idea. A high-level government committee has recommended that the federal capital have a 27-member elected assembly with its own elected head, while the office of chief commissioner would be replaced by that of chief secretary. Key departments, including health, education, environment and municipal services, would come under the elected administration, while law and order and master planning could remain with the federal government.

As Kamran Khan said in the latest episode of On My Radar, the Islamabad proposal could become a model that is eventually replicated elsewhere in Pakistan. The idea is significant because it points towards a provincial-style system of governance without necessarily requiring Islamabad to be declared a constitutional province.

That distinction could prove crucial. The debate within government is increasingly centred not simply on creating new provinces or changing their boundaries, but on what critics describe as the extreme centralisation of power. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has repeatedly argued that Pakistan’s existing administrative structure is struggling to cope with a rapidly growing population and that decision-making powers must be brought closer to the people.

The discussion is also expanding beyond provinces. Several federal ministers and political groups have called for Pakistan’s 36 divisions to be developed into stronger administrative units, potentially giving them greater authority over local affairs and service delivery.

There is, however, a significant constitutional hurdle to creating new provinces. Article 239 requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament as well as in the assembly of the province whose boundaries are being altered. That makes the creation of new provinces a politically and constitutionally difficult process.

As a result, a different approach is gaining traction: devolving authority to districts, divisions and local governments without creating new constitutional provinces. Greater administrative and financial powers at these levels could address some of the problems associated with centralised governance through ordinary legislation rather than a constitutional amendment.

Sindh is likely to remain the most politically sensitive test of this debate. The Pakistan Peoples Party and the Sindh government have strongly opposed proposals for new provinces or autonomous administrative units, and the Sindh Assembly has already passed a resolution against the division of the province.

Yet lawmakers from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamaat-e-Islami have argued that greater devolution does not necessarily mean dividing Sindh. They have instead called for more powers, resources and administrative authority to be transferred to cities and regions including Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana and Sukkur, allowing them greater control over their own affairs.

Opposition to dividing Sindh remains strong, but the debate is also being fuelled by dissatisfaction over governance and service delivery. Critics argue that after 18 years of continuous Pakistan Peoples Party rule in the province, many citizens still lack adequate access to public services and meaningful local decision-making.

The broader national debate, therefore, is gradually moving beyond the question of whether Pakistan should have more provinces. At its heart is a more fundamental issue: how can authority be taken closer to the people in a country whose population, cities and economic needs have outgrown its existing administrative structure?

Islamabad could now become the first major experiment. If the proposed model succeeds in giving residents greater representation and improving the delivery of public services, it could provide a blueprint for wider administrative reform - potentially reshaping how Pakistan is governed without necessarily creating new provinces.