Pakistan nears $1.2B IMF tranche after meeting key targets

Pakistan is likely to receive a $1.2 billion installment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as early as next month after making significant progress on key program targets, according to officials familiar with the discussions.

Pakistan has met 13 out of 17 performance benchmarks under the IMF program, the sources said, raising expectations that the lender’s executive board will approve the disbursement in early May.

Two targets have yet to be completed, while data for another two has not been submitted to the IMF.

Officials said the Federal Board of Revenue has not provided details on a tax collection target of PKR 366 billion from retailers. Data related to the goal of adding 500,000 new tax filers has also not yet been shared with the IMF, according to Finance Ministry sources.

Despite these gaps, several key economic indicators have met program requirements. Pakistan has successfully achieved targets related to foreign exchange reserves and other financial benchmarks, while maintaining the primary budget deficit within agreed limits.

Provincial governments have met their tax collection target of PKR 568 billion, and the federal government has kept its guarantees within the ceiling of PKR 4,542 billion, as required under the program.

In line with IMF conditions, the State Bank of Pakistan has not extended any new lending to the government, the sources said.

The IMF has set a deadline of June for additional targets. A negative target of $4.4 billion has been set for foreign exchange reserves, according to Finance Ministry officials.

Pakistan’s budget deficit is projected to reach PKR 3,156 billion by the end of the current fiscal year, with expectations it will narrow to PKR 2,978 billion by March 2027.

Meanwhile, the FBR is tasked with achieving a target of 1 million new tax returns during the current fiscal year. For the next fiscal year, authorities aim to add a further 750,000 tax filers by March, the sources added.