Pakistan's cotton arrivals growth slows sharply to 5% as heat hits yields

Pakistan's cotton arrivals have risen only 5% year-on-year so far this season, sharply slowing from a 27% increase recorded about a month earlier, raising concerns across the cotton sector and increasing expectations for higher cotton prices and imports, a senior industry official said.

The slowdown in arrivals could also affect cotton exports and prices, while tighter enforcement of digital invoicing by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) may reduce undocumented cotton trading, said Ehsan-ul-Haq, chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum.

"Initially, weather conditions remained favorable and it was expected that cotton production would be 10% to 15% higher than last year," Haq said. "However, temperatures remained above normal during the recent period, causing cotton bolls to open earlier, and the expected improvement in per-acre yields has now declined considerably."

According to data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Saturday, cotton equivalent to 3.208 million bales of seed cotton had arrived at ginning factories across the country by September 30, up about 5% from the same period last year.

Punjab accounted for 1.215 million bales, up 7% from a year earlier, while Sindh recorded 1.993 million bales, an increase of about 4%, the PCGA data showed.

Textile mills had purchased 2.727 million bales from ginners by September 30, while exporters had bought 96,600 bales, according to the data. About 385,000 bales remained available for sale at ginning factories, while 459 ginning factories were operating across the country.

Slower arrivals

Haq said the pace of arrivals during the second half of September was significantly below expectations.

Ginners were expected to receive about 1.1 million bales during the fortnight from September 16 to 30, but actual arrivals stood at about 820,000 bales, he said.

Punjab received 354,000 bales during the fortnight, compared with 446,000 bales during the same period last year. Sindh recorded 466,000 bales, compared with 594,000 bales a year earlier.

The slower pace of arrivals has raised concerns about the final size of Pakistan's cotton crop, particularly as expectations for a substantial year-on-year increase have weakened sharply.

Haq said a significant discrepancy also remained between cotton production estimates issued by the PCGA and Punjab's Crop Reporting Service. The PCGA estimates Punjab's cotton arrivals at 1.215 million bales as of September 30, while the Crop Reporting Service puts production at 2.492 million bales, nearly double the PCGA figure.

Global production outlook

Global cotton production is also expected to be lower than earlier estimates, potentially supporting international cotton prices, Haq said.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee has estimated global cotton production at 25.94 million metric tons in the 2026-27 cotton year, down 3.8% from 26.98 million tons in 2025-26, he said.

The lower global production outlook, combined with slower domestic arrivals, could influence Pakistan's cotton supply and pricing outlook during the current season.

Haq said practical measures were needed to revive Pakistan's cotton sector and improve domestic production.

Quality improvement

The Pakistan Cotton Standards Institute, an arm of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, has organized a series of three-day training workshops for cotton stakeholders in different cities, Haq said.

The workshops are aimed at training industry participants in cotton quality assessment, with the objective of improving the quality of Pakistani cotton and supporting the country's cotton exports, he said. Pakistan's textile industry is heavily dependent on cotton, making domestic crop availability and quality important factors for textile mills and exporters.

Undocumented trade

Haq said high taxes on the cotton industry had contributed to a significant increase in undocumented cotton trading in recent years. He estimated that around 1.5 million to 2 million bales of cotton were traded through undocumented channels annually in Pakistan.

However, the introduction and stricter enforcement of digital invoicing by the FBR could lead to a decline in such undocumented transactions, he said. The increased documentation of cotton transactions could provide greater visibility into the actual size of the domestic market and improve tax compliance, while also changing trading patterns across the cotton supply chain.

Haq said restoring cotton production, improving quality standards and addressing structural issues in the sector would be necessary to strengthen Pakistan's cotton industry and support future exports.