Pakistan's inflation expected to ease in November and then December

Pakistan's inflation in November is projected to be between 5.8% and 6.8%, and for December, it is expected to decrease to between 5.6% and 6.5%, the Ministry of Finance noted in a report on Wednesday.

The report also noted that exports, imports, and workers' remittances are expected to continue rising. November exports are anticipated to be between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, imports between $4.5 billion and $4.9 billion, and remittances between $2.8 billion and $3.3 billion.

The agricultural and industrial sectors are receiving strong support from government policies. Wheat planting is progressing well to meet production targets, with the government ensuring timely provision of key resources to farmers at reasonable prices.

The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector is showing signs of recovery, with gradual increases in production, especially in textiles and automobiles.

Fiscal consolidation and contained inflation are expected to boost economic activities in the coming months. From July to September 2024-25, net federal revenues grew by 186% to PKR 4,019 billion, mainly due to a surplus profit from the State Bank of Pakistan amounting to PKR 2,500 billion.

Tax and non-tax revenues increased by 25.5% and 567%, respectively, while total expenditure grew slightly by 1.8%.

The fiscal balance posted a surplus of PKR 1,896 billion or 1.5% of GDP, compared to a deficit of PKR 981 billion or 0.9% of GDP. The primary balance reached a surplus of PKR 3,202 billion or 2.6% of GDP.

Additionally, Pakistan is actively working on climate financing and mitigation measures. At COP29 in Baku, Pakistan introduced its National Climate Finance Strategy and National Carbon Market Policy to support climate adaptation and mitigation projects, accelerate clean technology deployment, and attract investment in sectors with significant emission reduction potential.