Pakistan's July inflation expected to come in between 10.5-11%

Pakistan’s inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in at 10.5-11% for July, according to a survey conducted by Nukta.

Analysts from Foundation Securities, Arif Habib Limited, JS Global, Insight Securities, and Sherman Securities unanimously predict a CPI of 10.5% for the month.

Spectrum Securities estimates a slightly higher rate at 10.7%, while AKD Securities and Ismail Iqbal Securities suggest 11%.

Optimus Securities forecasts 11.1%, and Next Capital projects the highest estimate at 11.6%.

The CPI for June was recorded at 12.6% compared to 29% in June 2023. Analysts attribute this to the high-base effect from last year’s elevated inflation .

Despite a 250-basis points cut in the policy rate over the past two months, the central bank’s CPI estimates for FY25 range from 11.5% to 13.5%.

Looking ahead, headline inflation is expected to remain subdued due to the high-base effect. However, this forecast depends on stable global commodity prices and the absence of significant currency shocks. Currently, both global prices and the domestic currency appear favorable, with no immediate risk of abnormal disruptions.