Pakistan fertilizer sales spike as farmers rush to buy early

Fertilizer sales in Pakistan surged sharply in March, driven by aggressive pre-buying ahead of the upcoming Kharif planting season and expectations of higher prices amid rising global fuel costs, industry data showed.

Urea sales for March are estimated at about 568,000 tons, marking an 85% increase compared with the same period last year and more than doubling from the previous month. Analysts attributed the spike to early purchasing by farmers and dealers anticipating price hikes linked to geopolitical tensions that have pushed international urea prices to around $815 per ton.

On a company basis, Fauji Fertilizer Company is expected to retain its leading position with estimated sales of 283,000 tons. Engro Fertilizers follows with 189,000 tons, while Fatima Fertilizer is projected to record sales of 59,000 tons.

Inventory levels, which have fluctuated over the past year, stood at roughly 843,000 tons at the end of February but are expected to decline to about 750,000 tons after the March sales surge. Producers, however, anticipate inventories will stabilize near 1 million tons by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, sales of diammonium phosphate (DAP) also showed strong growth. March sales are projected at 149,000 tons, up 207% year-on-year and 103% month-on-month, reflecting similar pre-buying trends ahead of the Kharif season.

For the first three months of 2026, cumulative DAP sales are estimated at 262,000 tons, a 74% increase from a year earlier.

Fauji Fertilizer Company led DAP sales with 105,000 tons in March and 182,000 tons for the quarter, followed by Engro Fertilizers with 14,000 tons in March and 40,000 tons cumulatively. The Fatima Group accounted for about 12,000 tons over the three-month period.

Despite the March spike, total urea offtake for the first quarter reached 1.04 million tons, down 6% from 1.1 million tons in the same period last year. In contrast, DAP offtake recorded robust growth, rising 74% year-on-year.

Looking ahead, demand is expected to remain supported by seasonal agricultural activity.

However, analysts warned that continued geopolitical tensions could disrupt imports — particularly of DAP — and keep supply tight. Rising energy costs are also likely to sustain upward pressure on fertilizer prices in the coming months.