Pakistan sees early FY26 gains in agriculture, industry and public finances

Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance said agricultural activity, fiscal management and industrial output showed improvement in the early months of the current fiscal year, while the overall economic outlook remained positive, according to its latest Monthly Economic Outlook.

The ministry reported that agricultural credit disbursement rose 18.6% to PKR 1,097.6 billion during July to November of fiscal year 2025-26 compared with PKR 925.7 billion in the same period last year. Imports of agricultural machinery and implements also increased by 27.3% to $58 million during the period, up from $45.5 million a year earlier.

During the ongoing Rabi season 2025-26, urea offtake in October and November totaled 1.17 million tonnes, an increase of 15.6% compared with the same period of the previous Rabi season. In contrast, diammonium phosphate (DAP) offtake declined 16.1% to 464,000 tonnes, the report said.

For the Rabi season, the government has set a wheat production target of 29.68 million tonnes from a cultivated area of 9.65 million hectares. The ministry said coordinated measures are being implemented to meet the target, including timely provision of agricultural credit, certified seeds, fertilizers and mechanization support.

The Monthly Economic Outlook also highlighted improved fiscal performance. Prudent fiscal management resulted in a consolidated fiscal surplus of 1.0% of gross domestic product during July to October FY26, compared with 0.4% in the same period last year.

Gross federal receipts increased by 7.7% while total expenditure declined by 4.8%, the report said. A primary surplus of 2.7% of GDP was recorded during the period, unchanged from last year.

The ministry said Pakistan’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by sustained growth in industrial activity, particularly in textiles, automobiles, cement and food processing. Large-scale manufacturing is expected to continue its recovery, aided by structural reforms aimed at improving industrial competitiveness.

Inflation is projected to remain moderate, in the range of 5.5% to 6.5% in December, largely due to base effects, the report said. On the external front, the current account is expected to stay within the targeted range, with strong remittance inflows and steady performance in information technology and services exports helping to cushion external pressures.

The outlook noted that ongoing fiscal consolidation, improved expenditure management, enhanced tax collection and structural reforms are expected to support macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth in the coming months.

On the social protection front, the ministry said the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, working with 26 partner organizations, disbursed 5,657 interest-free loans totaling PKR 356 million in November. Since 2019, cumulative disbursements under the program have reached PKR 121.5 billion.

Spending under the Benazir Income Support Program amounted to PKR 143.5 billion during July to October FY26, marking a 26.8% increase compared with the same period last year, the report said.