Pakistan stocks set for positive run amid Eid-shortened trading week

Pakistan's stock market is projected to maintain a positive trajectory during the upcoming shortened two-day trading week, which comes as the country prepares for Eid-ul-Fitr holidays.

Analysts from Arif Habib Ltd. attributed the optimism to anticipated inflation figures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to record a remarkable low of 0.79%, the lowest in six decades.

The KSE-100 index, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.4x for 2025 compared to its 10-year average of 8.0x, offers an attractive dividend yield of approximately 8.2%, well above its 10-year average of 6.5%.

Market sentiments remain upbeat following recent developments, including a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), new loans aimed at addressing the power sector’s circular debt, and payments to independent power producers (IPPs) under Power Purchase Agreement settlements.

Analysts from Spectrum Securities noted that while the stock market will be closed for four days, reopening on Thursday, April 3, attention will soon shift to earnings and dividends for the first and third fiscal quarters.

Key levels for the KSE-100 index include a potential move past 118,000 points, which analysts believe could open the door to shorter-term targets at 121,000, 123,000, and 126,000 points. On the downside, support levels are identified at 115,000 points, near the 30-day moving average, and 112,000 points.

Looking ahead, AKD Securities expects the market to remain positive in the weeks to come, driven by the recent IMF agreement. Projections suggest the KSE-100 index could achieve a target of 165,215 points by December 2025, underpinned by strong performances in the fertilizer sector, sustained returns on equity in the banking sector, and improving cash flows for exploration and production companies, as well as oil marketing companies.

The week ending March 27, 2025, saw mixed trends in the KSE-100 index, which closed at 117,807 points, down 635 points or 0.5%.

Early-week concerns arose from proposed increases in royalties for cement companies and IMF reservations over tariff cuts. However, market momentum rebounded after the IMF announced the first review of its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, paving the way for a $1 billion tranche.

Foreign investors maintained a buying streak, registering net inflows of $3.92 million, a sharp reversal from last week’s net outflows of $7.96 million.

Currency

Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee showed minor gains against the U.S. dollar, closing at PKR 280.22, buoyed by optimism surrounding the IMF agreement despite external payment pressures and dwindling foreign reserves.

Gold

Gold continued its upward trajectory in both domestic and international markets, achieving record-breaking highs on Saturday.

According to the Sarafa Association, the price of gold per tola has increased by PKR 7,000 during the week reaching an all-time high of PKR 325,000, while the rate for 10 grams climbed by PKR 6,000 settling at PKR 278,635.

Internationally, bullion prices also marked gains, with the price per ounce increasing by $60 to reach a historic high of $3,084 during the week.