UAE may see above-average rainfall from October as El Niño strengthens

Some long-range weather models point to above-average rain in the UAE from October through January, the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) said, Khaleej Times reported. The forecast comes as the country enters its cooler, wetter season. NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib said it is not a warning of extreme storms or flooding.

Will the UAE get above-average rain from October?

Possibly. Some models show wetter-than-average weather from October to January, but the exact amount is uncertain. El Niño can influence rainfall, yet it does not guarantee storms or floods. Local weather systems will decide how much rain actually falls, Habib said.

What is the NCM saying about El Niño?

In a clarification issued on September 11, the NCM described this year's El Niño as "very strong." It called the pattern an indicator of beneficial rainfall. Such rainfall could at times bring heavy rain if suitable weather conditions develop over the UAE.

El Niño involves unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can affect weather around the world. It does not automatically cause extreme weather in a given country.

How does El Niño affect UAE weather?

Habib said El Niño does not directly affect the UAE on its own. Its influence is felt through wider changes in atmospheric circulation, and the impact varies by region. Historical records also show El Niño has been present in some periods and absent in others.

Significant rainfall needs several ingredients to come together. These include moisture, water vapor, surface and upper-air temperatures, and suitable pressure systems.

Habib said atmospheric features such as Rossby waves can influence where weather systems and heavy rain develop. Where extreme weather may occur is not yet known. It could be over the Middle East, perhaps in the Northern Gulf or elsewhere.

"At the moment, El Niño is active in the ocean, but the pressure system in our area is not leading to extreme weather conditions," Habib said.

Conditions can change as the season goes on. Long-range indications of a wetter season should be treated separately from short-term forecasts, he said.

Should residents trust social media rain warnings?

The NCM has sought to counter viral social media posts warning of severe flooding or unusually heavy rain because of El Niño. Residents are urged to rely on official NCM forecasts and warnings, not social media claims, when assessing the risk of rain or severe weather.

What will the UAE weather be like in the coming weeks?

Residents can expect the usual gradual shift toward autumn. Temperatures will stay high before easing later in the season.

Daytime temperatures could still reach 44°C to 46°C, Habib said. Higher nighttime humidity could raise the chance of fog or mist, especially in coastal areas.