UAE leads MENA growth with strong non-oil expansion

The UAE's GDP is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2024, with further acceleration to 4.1% in 2025, according to the World Bank's latest semi-annual MENA Economic Update.

The report, titled "Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," highlights the UAE’s leadership in real GDP per capita growth, which is expected to reach 2.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, fueled by strong performance in the non-oil sector.

The UAE's current account surplus is forecasted to decrease to 7.5% of GDP in 2024, down from 9.2% in 2023.

Nevertheless, the UAE is anticipated to maintain fiscal surpluses of 4.9% of GDP in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, showcasing the country's continued financial stability.

In the wider MENA region, overall GDP growth is expected to rise modestly to 2.2% in 2024, up from 1.8% in 2023. This increase is largely driven by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, where growth is projected to improve significantly from 0.5% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024, reaching 4.2% by 2025.

Growth in GCC countries is expected to strengthen, with the region's forecast improving to 4.2% in 2025. However, in the rest of MENA, growth is projected to slow.

Oil-importing countries are forecasted to see growth decline from 3.2% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, while growth among non-GCC oil exporters is expected to dip from 3.2% to 2.7% during the same period.

For developing oil exporters in MENA, growth is projected at 2.7% in 2024, while oil importers are expected to see slower growth at 2.1%. Meanwhile, the overall MENA region is expected to achieve 3.8% growth in 2025, driven by the strength of GCC economies.