Warming up to Pakistan: What's in it for America?

In the not-so-distant past, Washington’s messages to Pakistan came with sharp edges. From accusations of duplicity in counterterrorism efforts to blunt calls to “do more,” the language was unmistakably stern, often leaving Islamabad defensive and diplomatically cornered.

Yet in recent months, including a brief but intense Pakistan-India war in May that thrust the region into global focus, the American tone has noticeably softened. The conflict, which brought renewed attention to U.S. diplomacy, highlighted a marked shift away from the harsher rhetoric of earlier years.

Since a ceasefire took hold on May 10, brokered by none other than President Donald Trump himself, the US leader has publicly praised Pakistan multiple times. That’s a stunning shift for a country that, just a few years ago, was being publicly rebuked by Trump on X (formerly Twitter) as a haven for terrorists.

The question many in Islamabad (and beyond) are now asking: What changed?

Some analysts believe there’s more beneath the surface -- pragmatic deals that don’t make headlines but shape diplomacy.

Behind the scenes: Counterterrorism and critical minerals

While talking to Nukta, Zameer Akram, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the UN, identifies two key drivers:

• Counterterrorism wins: Pakistan’s cooperation in high-stakes cases (like the Kabul bomber arrest) has earned recognition.
• Resource diplomacy: Growing U.S. interest in Pakistan’s rare earth minerals, vital for advanced technologies.

Akram also pointed to the recent India-Pakistan conflict as a revealing moment in Washington’s strategic priorities.

During the May standoff, Islamabad appeared more receptive to U.S. mediation, while New Delhi pushed back -- both diplomatically and in the media. That contrast may have influenced the way Washington weighed its words.

Still, Akram was careful to add a note of realism:

In the long run, the U.S. remains more strategically aligned with India in its rivalry with China. Pakistan, on the other hand, is a core partner of Beijing. That larger geopolitical fault line isn’t going away.

Even so, some gestures carry symbolic weight that can shift diplomatic winds -- at least in the short term.

A symbolic reset: Trump’s Congressional applause

During a rare moment of bipartisan unity in March, Trump stood before a joint session of Congress and singled out Islamabad’s role in a major counterterrorism breakthrough. “I want to especially thank the Pakistani government for helping arrest this monster,” he said, referring to a suspect in the 2021 Kabul airport bombing. The comment drew applause and marked what many in Washington saw as a reset in tone.

That moment of shared justice appears to have opened the door to warmer rhetoric. Since then, Trump also described Pakistanis as “brilliant people,” and voiced interest in boosting bilateral trade -- a notable departure from the more combative, transactional tenor that defined earlier relations.

A fragile thaw or strategic pivot?

This isn’t the first U.S.-Pakistan détente. Post-9/11, Islamabad became a critical ally in the War on Terror, only for trust to erode over drone strikes, the Taliban, and the Bin Laden raid.

Now, observers wonder: Is this warmth temporary or a deeper shift?

In conversation with Nukta, senior political analyst Zahid Hussain said he doesn’t believe there has been any major shift in US-Pakistan ties, nor in Washington’s relationship with India. However, he acknowledged that the US stance during the recent ceasefire came as a surprise to India.

To say that the US has tilted towards Pakistan would be premature.

“India remains a strategic ally of the United States. The real question is how long Trump’s current approach towards India and Pakistan -- especially after the recent conflict -- will last, given the inconsistency in his foreign policy.”

He explained that there are two to three key reasons behind what some interpret as a change—though he refrained from calling it a true shift. “The end of the US war in Afghanistan also marked the end of its close engagement with Pakistan, but military cooperation has continued, particularly in counterterrorism,” he said.

“Despite the US exiting the region, counterterrorism remains a link between the two countries. For example, Pakistan recently arrested a Daesh commander connected to the Kabul airport bombing that killed US soldiers.”

Crypto connections: A new frontier in US-Pakistan ties?

Hussain added that Trump has shown a growing interest in cryptocurrency, and Pakistan’s signals of alignment with those interests may have caught Washington’s attention.

What’s behind Pakistan’s crypto buzz and is the US paying attention? Watch this video 👇

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

“Another factor is rare earth minerals,” he said. “The US recently sent a senior official to a conference in Pakistan, reflecting clear interest in that sector.”

India’s discomfort and the Kashmir question

The recent thaw has also left India uneasy. New Delhi, which has long counted on Washington’s implicit support on regional issues like Kashmir, has watched with some alarm as Trump praises Pakistan’s "leadership" in bringing peace. An Indian Express columnist even wrote that Trump’s overtures to Islamabad “destroyed India’s careful positioning on Kashmir.”

Indeed, India’s May 7 missile strikes in Pakistani territory -- launched in response to an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir -- had brought the region to the brink. Drone warfare, artillery exchanges, and public threats dominated headlines for days.

Then, suddenly, Trump stepped in. He brokered a ceasefire and later told Fox News:

“That was going to be a nuclear war, I think, or close… And now everyone’s happy.” He credited “great conversations” with Pakistan’s leadership and portrayed himself as the architect of peace.

Islamabad’s calculated optimism

Islamabad, for its part, has welcomed the shift with calculated optimism. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly thanked Trump for his “leadership and proactive role,” while signaling interest in a new phase of economic and diplomatic cooperation.

Masood Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the U.S., told Nukta that he believes the shift is more than transactional. “I don’t think Pakistan offered anything behind closed doors to win favor. The logic now points to a U.S. policy recalibration that seeks balance between India and Pakistan,” he said.

Khan added that ties between the two countries have endured highs and lows, but it’s time to upgrade defence dialogue, revive cooperation on Kashmir diplomacy, and pursue counterterrorism goals still unfinished.”

However, Hussain cautioned against placing too much hope in the US resolving the India-Pakistan conflict, particularly over Kashmir. “That would be an unrealistic expectation,” he said.

Trump’s efforts are driven more by strategic and economic interests than any desire to establish peace. His overarching motivation is trade and what benefits the US can gain.

The bigger question: Will it last?

Still, the question of sustainability looms. Trump’s foreign policy instincts have long been marked by dramatic pivots -- from bellicose tweets to diplomatic overtures and back again. Whether this current thaw is durable or merely driven by temporary strategic convenience remains to be seen.

For now, what is clear is that the language of engagement has changed. The “do more” era appears to be on pause. In its place: thank-yous, praise, and a seemingly open door to renewed ties.

But in the world of global diplomacy, such soft words often conceal harder bargains.