World looks to G20 in Rio for breakthrough in stalled COP29 climate talks

Diplomatic tensions over global warming will take center stage at the G20 summit in Brazil this week, as negotiators at U.N. talks in Azerbaijan hit an impasse on climate finance that they hope leaders of the world's 20 major economies can break.

Heads of state arriving in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday for the G20 summit will spend Monday and Tuesday addressing issues from poverty and hunger to the reform of global institutions. Still, the ongoing U.N. climate talks have thrown a spotlight on their efforts to tackle global warming.

While the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, is tasked with agreeing a goal to mobilize hundreds billions of dollars for the climate, leaders of the Group of 20 major economies half a world away in Rio are holding the purse strings.

Members of the Indigenous People Association stage a protest to demand action on climate change, holding big head cut-outs of world leaders U.S. President Joe Biden, China's President Xi Jinping, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, on the waters of Botafogo Bay, ahead of the G20 Summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil November 16, 2024.Reuters

G20 countries account for 85% of the world's economy and are the largest contributors to multilateral development banks helping to steer climate finance. They are also responsible for more than three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.

"All countries must do their part. But the G20 must lead," U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres told COP29 last week. "They are the largest emitters, with the greatest capacities and responsibilities."

Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres speaks during the Opening Ceremony of the United Nations climate change conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan November 12, 2024.Reuters

Reaching such an accord may only get tougher with the return to power of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is reportedly preparing to again pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord.

Trump is also planning to roll back landmark climate legislation passed by the outgoing Joe Biden, who will become the first U.S. president to visit the Amazon rainforest when he makes a stop there on Sunday on his way to Rio.

U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell wrote a letter to G20 leaders on Saturday imploring them to act on climate finance, including boosting grants for developing nations and advancing reforms of multilateral development banks.

A cleaning staff walks past a G20 Summit sign outside the Museum of Modern Art (MAM), the venue of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil November 14, 2024.Reuters

However, the same fights that have plagued COP29 since it began last week are spilling over into G20 negotiations, according to diplomats close to the Rio talks.

COP29 must set a new goal for how much financing should be directed from developed countries, multilateral banks and the private sector to developing nations. Economists told the summit it should be at least $1 trillion.

Wealthy countries, especially in Europe, have been saying that an ambitious goal can only be agreed if they expand the base of contributors to include some of the richer developing nations, such as China and major Middle Eastern oil producers.

On Saturday, discussions of a G20 joint statement in Rio snagged on the same issue, with European nations pushing for more countries to contribute and developing countries such as Brazil pushing back, diplomats close to the talks told Reuters.

The success of not only COP29 but also the next U.N. climate summit, COP30 hosted in Brazil next year, hinges on a breakthrough on climate finance.

A centerpiece of Brazil's COP30 strategy is "Mission 1.5," a drive to keep alive the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The U.N. estimates that current national targets would cause temperatures to rise by at least 2.6 degrees C.

Developing countries argue they can only raise their targets for emissions reductions if rich nations, who are the main culprits for climate change, foot the bill.

"It is technically possible to meet the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, but only if a G20-led, massive mobilization to cut all greenhouse gas emissions ... is achieved," said Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davis at COP29 last week.